Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing stock closes up 2.96%, nears $477 resistance

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing stock closed Friday, October 2, 2026, at $472.78, up 2.96%, landing above its daily upper Bollinger Band at $471.81. The session opened at $465.64, traded between a low of $464.10 and a high of $474.79, and closed at $472.78, against a previous close of $459.20. The daily uptrend remains structurally intact, yet the close above the upper band leaves price extended relative to its recent range.

Key takeaways

• Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing stock closed Friday at $472.78, up 2.96% from the prior close of $459.20.
• Daily RSI14 is 71.49, above the overbought threshold of 70.
• The daily MACD histogram is 2.83, up from 2.23, with the MACD line at 10.93 above its signal at 8.10.
• Hourly RSI14 is 73.08, down from 74.12, with the hourly MACD histogram at 1.12, down from 1.22.
• The 15-minute MACD histogram is -0.32, the only negative reading across the three timeframes analyzed.

Daily Trend: A Stacked Bullish TSM Structure at an Extreme

On the daily chart, price sits above its 20-session EMA at $444.25. That EMA in turn sits above the 50-session EMA at $431.92 and the 200-session EMA at $386.02. This is a fully stacked bullish order, leaving little ambiguity about the primary trend. Daily RSI14 climbed to 71.49 from 65.84, moving into overbought territory above the 70 threshold.

Meanwhile, the daily MACD line stands at 10.93, above its signal at 8.10. The histogram rose to 2.83 from 2.23, confirming the line’s position above the signal. Notably, Friday’s close at $472.78 sits above the upper Bollinger Band at $471.81. The mid-band rests at $441.12 and the lower band at $410.43. However, it does mark price as stretched relative to its own recent range. Daily ATR14 reads 10.61, up from 10.23, pointing to wider day-to-day ranges.

For the next session, the daily pivot sits at $470.56. First resistance (R1) stands at $477.01 and first support (S1) at $466.32. Price closed above the pivot, leaving R1 as the level bulls would need to clear. S1 marks the first line of defense on any retracement.

Hourly Picture: Confirmation, With RSI14 at 73.08

The hourly chart broadly confirms the daily bias. Price sits above its 20-hour EMA at $464.35. That EMA sits above the 50-hour EMA at $456.94 and the 200-hour EMA at $438.57 — another fully stacked bullish configuration. However, the internals are softer than the daily snapshot suggests.

Hourly RSI14 is 73.08, still overbought. At the same time, the hourly MACD line is 4.84, above its signal at 3.73. The histogram eased to 1.12 from 1.22 — still positive, but smaller than one candle earlier.

On the Bollinger setup, price sits below the hourly upper band at $476.03. It holds above the mid-band at $462.66, with the lower band at $449.30. This is a more neutral position than the daily chart’s extension beyond its own upper band. Hourly ATR14 fell to 3.33 from 3.44. For the next session, the hourly pivot sits at $473.54, with first resistance at $474.16 and first support at $472.28. The close sits between that pivot and first support.

15-Minute Execution: A Shallow Pullback Inside the TSM Range

On the 15-minute chart, price sits above its 20-period EMA at $471.04. It also holds above the 50-period EMA at $466.66 and the 200-period EMA at $455.93. This is a third consecutive stacked bullish configuration across timeframes. In contrast to the daily and hourly RSI readings, 15-minute RSI14 slipped to 65.19 from 70.48, moving back below the overbought threshold while still holding above the neutral 50 line.

The 15-minute MACD line is 2.10, below its signal at 2.43. The histogram reads -0.32, confirming the line sits below its signal on this shortest timeframe. Price sits above the 15-minute mid-band at $472.10 and below the upper band at $474.41, with the lower band at $469.78. For the next session, the 15-minute pivot sits at $473.48. First resistance stands at $474.04 and first support at $472.34. The close sits between that support and the pivot.

What the News Flow Adds

During Friday’s session, Yahoo Finance reported that TSM stock jumped 3.1% as the company’s High-NA road map targets 2030. The report noted that current masks support initial production while larger formats promise another productivity step three years later. Separately, during Friday’s session, a Seeking Alpha contributor argued that the ADR’s operational leverage is largely maximized. However, the contributor said its supply chain position underpins confidence, calling Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing stock a strong buy.

Before Friday’s open, a Yahoo Finance report noted the company was back in focus. Reports had emerged that it is weighing a multibillion-dollar chip campus in Texas, separate from its existing Arizona commitment. Meanwhile, a Seeking Alpha contributor, writing after Friday’s close on Sunday, October 4, said they were “loading up” ahead of the Q3 earnings print. The contributor cited expectations for strong earnings, bullish AI demand, and capex commentary — a forward-looking view tied to an earnings event that had not yet occurred at the time of Friday’s close.

Bullish Scenario

The bullish case rests on the daily chart’s stacked EMA order holding. Price must continue to respect its position above the daily pivot at $470.56. On the hourly timeframe, reclaiming the pivot at $473.54 and then clearing first resistance at $474.16 would align the shorter-term structure with the daily trend, supporting continuation. A push through daily first resistance (R1) at $477.01 would then be the clearest signal that buyers are absorbing the overbought daily RSI14 reading of 71.49.

Bearish Scenario

On the hourly chart, a break below first support at $472.28 would be an earlier warning sign. Price is already sitting between that level and the hourly pivot. The bearish case needs price to break below daily first support (S1) at $466.32. That move would also pull price back inside the daily upper Bollinger Band at $471.81, undercutting the extended reading that currently defines the setup. A deeper reversal challenging the daily 20-session EMA at $444.25 would invalidate the near-term bullish structure altogether. However, that level sits well below current trade.

Closing Take

Overall, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing stock closed Friday at $472.78, above its daily pivot of $470.56. The close also landed above the daily upper Bollinger Band at $471.81. Daily RSI14 at 71.49 confirms an overbought condition. The hourly and 15-minute charts both maintain stacked bullish EMA orders. However, hourly and 15-minute RSI14 readings have eased from more extreme levels, and the 15-minute MACD histogram sits negative at -0.32. Daily ATR14 at 10.61, up from 10.23, points to wider ranges ahead. What remains uncertain is whether daily first resistance at $477.01 gets cleared on the next push. Alternatively, the stretched Bollinger positioning may first resolve with a pullback toward daily first support at $466.32. An upcoming Q3 earnings print, previewed but not yet delivered, may ultimately help answer that question.

FAQ

What is the daily trend structure for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing stock?

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing stock trades in a fully stacked bullish EMA order on the daily chart. Price at $472.78 sits above the 20-session EMA at $444.25, which sits above the 50-session EMA at $431.92, which in turn sits above the 200-session EMA at $386.02. Daily RSI14 is 71.49, above the overbought threshold of 70.

Where does TSM stock sit relative to its Bollinger Bands?

Friday’s close at $472.78 sits above the daily upper Bollinger Band at $471.81, an extended reading. The daily mid-band is at $441.12 and the lower band at $410.43. On the hourly chart, price holds below the upper band at $476.03 and above the mid-band at $462.66 — a more neutral position than the daily timeframe.

What are the key levels to watch for TSM stock?

For the next session, the daily pivot sits at $470.56, with first resistance (R1) at $477.01 and first support (S1) at $466.32. On the hourly chart, the pivot is $473.54, with first resistance at $474.16 and first support at $472.28. Price closed between the hourly pivot and its first support.

Is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing stock overbought?

Daily RSI14 is 71.49, above the 70 overbought threshold. Hourly RSI14 is 73.08, also overbought but down from 74.12 in the prior candle. On the 15-minute chart, RSI14 is 65.19, below the overbought threshold and above the neutral 50 line — the only timeframe not currently in overbought territory.

Article produced with the assistance of artificial intelligence and reviewed by the editorial team.