During Tuesday's session, Bitcoin briefly touched near $77,600 before pulling back to $78,900–$79,100 in the Asian early trading, ending the day nearly flat, with a small weekly gain. Ethereum fluctuated between $2,490–$2,510. The real repricing story came from Zcash: Grayscale's ZEC spot ETF (ZCSH) surpassed $500 million in assets within two weeks of listing, holding more than 550,000 tokens—about 3% of the circulating supply. ZEC rebounded from an intraday low near $1,120 to $1,230–$1,240, with 24-hour trading volume around $1 billion and its market cap returning to the top ten.
Macro outlook remains firm. August's nonfarm payrolls at 162,000 continue to anchor rate expectations, with the chance of a 25bp hike in September still around 60%. The latter half of this week brings PPI and CPI data, which will determine whether the $78,000 trading range breaks upward or downward.
BTC Key Levels
Resistance: $79,500–$80,000; a solid breakout targets the previous high zone of $81,000–$82,300.
Support: $78,000 as the short-term pivot; if lost, look to $77,600 (today's low) and $77,000; below that, $75,500.
Assessment: Has failed to break $80,000 for two weeks in a row, but there are buyers at $77,600. The structure remains a high-level trading range, not a unilateral bearish turn.
ETH Key Levels
Resistance: $2,510–$2,550.
Support: $2,460–$2,480; below that, $2,430.
Assessment: Lacking an independent narrative, direction follows BTC. Hold above $2,480 to continue consolidating; break below $2,430 likely leads to further declines.
ZEC Key Levels
Resistance: $1,248–$1,265 (recent highs); a steady hold opens up the path above $1,300.
Support: $1,180–$1,200 as initial defense on a pullback; $1,100–$1,120 as the line between an intact uptrend and breakdown; $1,000 as the sentiment bottom.
Assessment: The ETF has reduced circulating supply, reshaping short-term supply and demand, but RSI remains high. It's more suitable to add on retracements than chase the rally at $1,240.
Strategy
Major coins will first watch this week's inflation data: if the data is moderate, BTC may turn $80,000 from resistance to support; if it's hot, $77,600 may act as a midpoint rather than a bottom. For positions, do not short BTC unless $78,000 is broken, ETH to follow suit, and play ZEC only on pullbacks below $1,180. Reduce leverage before FOMC.
