Trump Says Military Actions Against Iran “Must End,” Media Reveals US Military Has Prepared “Pre-Election Strike Plan,” Oil Prices Surge

The US-Iran conflict has reached a critical juncture, with expectations of military escalation and stalled negotiations fermenting simultaneously, causing oil prices to surge sharply.

According to Xinhua News Agency, US President Trump publicly stated on the 6th, "The military action against Iran must be wrapped up", and said that the only outstanding question is "whether to conclude in a soft or tough manner." According to Bloomberg on October 8, The Atlantic quoted two US officials as reporting that the White House has requested the Pentagon to prepare strike plans against Iranian targets, with related actions possibly to be implemented before the mid-term elections next month. This directly breaks the previous widespread market expectation—that Trump would maintain a relatively restrained stance before the election.

After the news came out, oil prices rose sharply. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil surged toward $89 per barrel, while Brent crude closed near $100 per barrel on Wednesday and has now exceeded $101 per barrel. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Isaias forced over a quarter of the Gulf of Mexico’s crude oil production to shut down, further intensifying supply-side pressure.

Trump’s “Wrap-Up” Statement: Soft or Tough, Still Unclear

According to Xinhua News Agency, on the 6th, during a speech at Sparrows Point, Maryland, Trump said the US’s military actions against Iran have been “done very well” and explicitly stated these operations “must be wrapped up.”

He also pointed out, “The only consideration is in what manner to wrap up—whether in a soft or tough way”, leaving significant strategic ambiguity in his wording.

Since the US and Israel launched military strikes against Iran on February 28 this year, the US has implemented multiple measures including airstrikes, maritime blockades, and economic pressure. The conflict has lasted over seven months and has yet to conclude.

Pentagon Drafts “Pre-Election Strike Plans,” Market Expectations Upended

According to Bloomberg, The Atlantic quoted two US officials as disclosing that the White House has asked the Pentagon to formulate strike plans against Iran that could be executed before the midterm elections, with the planning led by US Central Command, responsible for coordinating theater operations.

The report points out that the core motivation is: Trump hopes to suppress oil prices before the election and demonstrate progress in the conflict to voters. However, the report also admits that even proponents of the plan concede that limited strike actions alone are not sufficient to force Iran back to the negotiating table, restore the safe passage of the Strait of Hormuz, or bring oil prices down before election day. Their logic is that a renewed strike after months of relative calm can showcase Trump’s tough stance and help generate political momentum for the Republican Party before the election.

The Atlantic also notes, The scale, target selection, and whether the strike will actually be implemented are all still under discussion. One possible path is to carry out a limited strike before the election, with larger-scale operations to follow afterward.

It is worth noting that this report directly conflicts with prior mainstream market judgment—namely, that Trump would not actively escalate the conflict before the election so as not to give voters more negative associations with the war, which has already burdened Republican candidates.

Oil Prices Soar Across the Board, Shipping Costs Hit Record Highs

Since the start of the year, the US-Iran conflict has continued to disrupt Middle East crude oil exports, accelerating global energy inventory depletion, sharply pushing up oil prices, and driving global inflation higher.

According to Bloomberg, the cost to charter a Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) to ship US crude oil to Asia has now reached $77 million, compared to just $9.2 million on average at the same time last year. This record-breaking surge in shipping costs has driven up supply chain costs significantly.

Domestically in the United States, official data show national crude oil and fuel exports rose last week to a seasonal historical high, highlighting strong overseas demand; national crude inventories dropped by 3.2 million barrels.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Isaias led to a shutdown of over a quarter of crude production in the Gulf of Mexico. According to the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, the storm is expected to strengthen into a strong Category 2 hurricane in the coming days, with short-term supply-side disruptions still accumulating.

Strait of Hormuz: Battle of Narratives and Supply Realities

Regarding control over the Strait of Hormuz, both the US and Iran present completely opposing statements.

According to Bloomberg, US Central Command posted on social media that 20 million barrels of crude currently pass through the Strait of Hormuz daily, the same as pre-conflict levels and higher than the 12 million barrels a day estimate given this week at a London conference by Vitol CEO Hardy.

However, Iranian state media Tasnim cited data saying that in the past two days, the volume of crude passing through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped sharply to about 3.8 million barrels per day, with the weekly average at around 9.3 million barrels per day. An advisor to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed the strait is "completely under Iran’s control" and the crude volume flowing out is "minimal."

On the ground, there have been more than a dozen attacks by Iranian drones on foreign vessels transiting the strait in the past eight days. On October 7, a tanker about 51 nautical miles north of Qatar was struck by “multiple projectiles,” resulting in casualties.

Additionally, Iran-backed Houthi forces attacked two airports in Saudi Arabia, causing 3 deaths and dozens of injuries. The Saudi-led coalition promptly announced that it had destroyed 82 Houthi targets in multiple locations across Yemen.