Where is Muse's commercialization stuck? Barred from two-thirds of websites

Meta's AI agent Muse is facing a pressing real-world barrier: restricted website access is becoming the core bottleneck in commercializing its agent business, rather than the model's capabilities themselves.

According to Chasing Wind Trading Desk, Jefferies stated in its latest research report that after hands-on testing of hundreds of major US e-commerce, airline, online travel, hotel, and booking websites, about one-third of sites directly block access from Muse, another one-third set verification challenges or restrictions, and only the remaining one-third can be used seamlessly. If this access friction continues to develop, it could delay the commercialization timeline for Meta’s agent business and further strengthen Google’s structural advantage.

Meanwhile, Meta's advertising business fundamentals remain robust. According to Jefferies’ advertising expert survey, Meta's advertising spend growth among surveyed advertisers surpassed Google by Q3 2026, and this trend is expected to continue through Q4 2026 and Q1 2027. Jefferies maintains a Buy rating on Meta with a price target of $875, implying about 18% upside from current levels.

Access barriers have replaced model capabilities as Muse’s biggest obstacle

Jefferies analyst Brent Thill and his team point out in the report that while Muse’s technological capabilities continue to impress, the bottleneck for its agent business is shifting from “Is the model good enough?” to “Can it get in?”

Test results show that website restrictions against agent access are growing almost daily. Of the hundreds of sites tested, around one-third directly block Muse, another one-third restrict automated interactions via verification challenges or similar methods, and only about one-third can be navigated smoothly by Muse.

The report argues that many websites’ default policy of blocking or challenging automated traffic is a long-term strategic mistake because agent commerce will broaden distribution channels. Meta’s response has been to establish sanctioned connectors with merchants and has announced partnerships with Walmart, Best Buy, Wayfair, Sephora, and Dick’s Sporting Goods. However, most of these integrations are still in early deployment and not officially online yet.

However, access friction may delay the overall adoption rate of agent commerce and ultimately prolong the time for Meta to earn meaningful commission revenue.

Google’s moat benefits, and enterprise customer service has new market opportunities

The access barrier issue objectively highlights Google’s structural advantage.

The Jefferies report notes that the vast majority of enterprises are unwilling to block Googlebot, because doing so would cause substantial losses in search traffic. This reality gives Google a significant advantage in data acquisition and web access. With the rise of the AI agent era, the value of this moat could increase even further.

Google’s crawler system, distribution network, and long-standing web access permissions give its agent products native breadth and contextual capabilities, while competitors may have to negotiate access rights with websites individually.

At the same time, the surge in customer service inquiries brought by agent commerce is also creating new market opportunities for enterprise customer service software vendors. Jefferies found in their tests that Muse interacts most frequently with in-house enterprise customer service systems, followed by CRM systems and Sierra. The report believes that both public companies like CRM, HUBS, NOW and private companies like Sierra and Decagon stand to benefit from this trend.

Strong advertising demand, Muse’s popularity boosts Meta advertising ecosystem

Despite uncertainties in the agent commerce monetization timeline, the fundamentals of Meta’s advertising business remain unaffected, and Muse’s popularity itself is transforming into incremental advertising demand drivers.

Jefferies' Q3 2026 advertising expert survey (sample size N=20) shows that 40% of advertisers expect Muse to increase their Meta platform ad spend in the next 12 months. Advertising experts also point out that as agent AI handles more queries, advertising optimization goals will shift from clicks to results, which positively supports the logic of Meta’s advertising products.

Jefferies maintains a Buy rating on Meta with a price target of $875, indicating a 25x P/E based on 2027 expected EPS. The report also cautions that user engagement declines, advertiser churn, and regulatory risks are the main downside risks.