The move has also wiped out about $1.2 trillion in combined market value from the two metals as investors rotated into interest-bearing bonds. The key focus now is whether this is a deeper trend reversal, a liquidity-driven sell-off, or a move toward key support levels.
On September 28, 2026, gold and silver prices came under intense selling pressure, as spot gold dropped approximately 4% to $4120-$4,156 per ounce, from approximately $4,285, while silver fell about 5% to the $61 level, from approximately $64.30. The main catalyst is the spike in the 10-year Treasury yield, which jumped to around 5.24-5.25% on Sept. 28, the highest level in about 19 years, since around 2007.
Higher yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold and silver. The real, inflation-adjusted yields also hit multi-year or 18-year highs around 2.85%, adding to this impact. Higher yields and rate expectations also strengthened the U.S. dollar, making dollar-denominated metals less attractive for holders of other currencies and adding further headwinds.
The higher the US Treasury yields, the greater the pressure on gold, and as long as the 10-year yield stays high around 5.24-5.25%, the fundamental headwind will remain. A continued increase in yields or additional hawkish Fed pricing would be conducive to further downside.
However, the sharp Sept. 28 sell-off has driven prices into oversold conditions on shorter timeframes, making a technical recovery possible if yields stabilize, the dollar weakens, or buyers intervene.
Immediate support is $4110-$4,120, followed by $4100-$4,055 and $4040-$4,000, while immediate resistance is $4155-$4,160, followed by $4180-$4,200 and $4220-$4,250. A breakout above $4300-$4,315 would indicate a more significant rebound.
Silver’s dual role as a monetary and industrial metal makes it more susceptible to risk-off flows, liquidity restrictions, and growth and rate changes than gold. The metal is currently trading below its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, keeping the short-term prospects of further downside risks high. Immediate support is $60.00-$60.40 / $60.84, followed by $59.35-$58.00, $57.27 and $55.
Meanwhile, the reported $1.2T loss in combined market cap is largely a valuation reset, rather than a wave of forced physical liquidations. But it could fuel further selling via ETF outflows, futures margin adjustments, and related risk reduction. Additional downside may be capped if yields stabilize or a technical bounce occurs from the $60 area, but failure of key supports would add further risk of additional liquidation.
(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});Gold and silver traders should watch Treasury yields and the US dollar after the September 28 sell-off. A pullback in Treasury yields, particularly real yields, would ease pressure on gold and silver, and further gains would bode well for continued lower yields.
Fed expectations and price action will also be important. Markets are currently pricing in a 70% chance of a rate hike at the October FOMC, with PCE inflation, employment data, and Fed comments to dictate these odds.
