Guangda Futures 0826 qızıl icmalı: Makro əhval-ruhiyyə yaxşılaşır, gecə ərzində qızıl dar diapazonda dalğalanır

London spot precious metals showed narrow fluctuations overnight, reaching $4696.83 during trading, marking a new high since mid-May, closing up 0.21%.

Major progress has been reported in the US-Iran ceasefire negotiations, leading to a sharp drop in oil prices. Gold is showing strong short-term fluctuations. Tonight, the US July PCE inflation data and the revised value of Q2 GDP will be released, just ahead of the Jackson Hole annual meeting. The results of this data may disrupt expectations regarding the US dollar and interest rates.

On the macro side, the US August Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 89.4, its lowest since January this year, reaching a seven-month low. Meanwhile, the University of Michigan’s August Consumer Sentiment Index declined for the first time in three months, with consumers increasingly concerned about worsening business conditions and rising inflation. According to Wall Street News, Boston Fed President Collins stated that if inflation improvements do not persist, tightening policy soon would be appropriate. Inflation faces upward risks from supply shocks and stronger-than-expected economic activity, and AI infrastructure seems to be pushing up core goods inflation. In terms of geopolitics, further major progress has been reported in US-Iran negotiations, with media saying the two sides have reached a consensus on the terms of the ceasefire agreement, including free passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Macro sentiment is warming and gold continues to maintain a strong performance. However, short-term rhythm needs attention: On the 28th, Fed Chair Walsh will deliver his first keynote speech at the Jackson Hole annual meeting—if he sends a clear anti-inflation signal, it could lead the market to reprice expectations for a September rate hike.

Written by: Li Qi

Professional qualification: F3046227

Trading consultant qualification: Z0016145

Editor: Zhu He Nan