U.S. inflation accelerates and rate hike bets heat up, pushing global bond yields near multi-year highs
智通财经2026/09/11 13:41Show original
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- Global stock market sell-off paused on Friday, oil prices retreated from a four-month high, but accelerating U.S. consumer inflation prompted traders to ramp up bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike next week, with bond yields remaining high.
- According to data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the August CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month, higher than July’s 0.1%.
- An institution’s global chief economist said that today’s inflation data did not change their view that the Federal Reserve is behind the curve. While overall inflation is being pushed up by energy prices, the bigger picture is an overheating economy and steadily rising core inflation.
- Traders quickly increased their bets that the Federal Reserve will raise rates during its two-day meeting next week, with the market currently seeing an approximately 85% probability of a 25 basis point hike, up from about 67% before the data release.
- Brent crude oil hit a four-month high of nearly $110 per barrel on Friday before facing selling pressure and falling back to around $104, but the weekly gain still exceeded 8%.
- Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain restricted, and even as reports indicate that foreign ministers from Middle Eastern countries are trying to reach a temporary agreement to manage shipping in the waterway, markets continue to price in long-term war risks.
- Comments from Trump suggesting the conflict could last until after the November mid-term elections intensified inflation concerns and drove global bond yields sharply higher. Institutional strategists noted that the market is now pricing in a scenario of higher interest rates for longer.
- The 10-year U.S. Treasury benchmark yield was little changed at 4.95% on Friday, having briefly touched a nearly three-year high of 4.9915% after the inflation data release. The 30-year yield climbed to a 19-year high of 5.424% before retreating to 5.341%.
- The short-end was under heavier pressure, with the 2-year yield rising 4.5 basis points to 4.6593%, after surging 12 basis points on Thursday.
- In Europe, the 10-year German bund yield rose 1 basis point on the day and 17 basis points for the week, marking the largest weekly gain since March.
- Analysts now expect eight out of nine developed market central banks to raise rates before the end of the year, including the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, four European central banks, as well as the Reserve Bank of Australia and Reserve Bank of New Zealand. They believe monetary tightening is still expected to remain moderate, but given the resilience in growth, sticky core inflation, and commodity price pressures, the risks are skewed towards more action.
- The European Central Bank raised rates for the second time this year on Thursday, and some officials believe further tightening in October remains possible.
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