价格会自己走出完美走势：美元韩元

地平线全球策略2026/09/20 09:35

作者:地平线全球策略

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1/ I’ve been short USDKRW since July 2. Objectively, the trade has run a little too far, a little too smoothly—it has already moved beyond the T2 target set at entry—and I’m ready to take profits and exit at any time.

But closing a short does not mean flipping long. With USDKRW in a descending channel and losing the market’s beauty contest, the risk/reward for a long is unattractive, and you need to at least wait for the short’s profit-taking trigger before acting (as of now, that requires a move above 1359)

It’s dangerous to call the end of a trend before price itself tells you it’s over.

自 7 月 2 日起，我一直做空 USDKRW。客观而言，这笔交易走得有些过头了，也过于顺利——目前已经突破入场时设定的 T2 目标——我随时准备获利了结并退出。但平掉空头并不意味着转为做多。USDKRW 处于下降通道中，并且在市场的选美比赛中失势，做多的风险回报比缺乏吸引力；请等待空头获利了结触发信号后再行动（截至目前，这要求价格升破 1359）。

在价格本身发出趋势已经结束的信号之前，贸然宣告趋势终结是危险的。