Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen stated that the Bitcoin (BTC) market is experiencing one of the highest levels of uncertainty in recent years, warning investors about critical price levels. While technical indicators support an upward trend, Cowen argued that macroeconomic conditions pose significant risks, suggesting Bitcoin could experience a sharp price movement in the coming days.
In his latest analysis published on his YouTube channel, Cowen stated that Bitcoin has reached a critical decision point around $83,000. According to the analyst, if current levels are maintained, Bitcoin could soon rise above $87,000 and form a new local high. However, if the rise becomes apparent as a false breakout, a very rapid sell-off could occur in the market.
Cowen noted that Bitcoin has recently managed to stay above its 50-day moving average, and trading above its 50-week moving average also creates a positive technical outlook. The analyst added that the RSI and MACD indicators, as well as the recent golden cross, support bullish expectations, recalling that similar signals have emerged in the end of past bear markets.
However, Cowen added that these indicators do not offer a definitive bullish guarantee. He stated that Bitcoin falling below the $83,000 level, especially on weekly closes, could seriously weaken the current bullish scenario. According to the analyst, such a development could lead to a concentration of selling pressure within just two or three weeks, similar to the false breakouts seen in 2015 and 2020.
Cowen believes that for Bitcoin to continue its upward trend, it needs to maintain its 50-day moving average and reach a new local high above $87,000 before the end of October. Otherwise, he says, the price could quickly retreat towards the lower end of its current trading range.
The $50,000–$60,000 Scenario for Bitcoin is Also on the Table
Another risk highlighted by Cowen was the Fed’s monetary policy. The analyst argued that rising inflation, which could lead to interest rate hikes, could put pressure on Bitcoin and other risky assets.
Cowen, specifically comparing the situation to 2019, noted that Bitcoin’s rise then was supported by the Fed’s balance sheet expansion and interest rate cuts, but that current monetary policy is moving in the opposite direction. He also pointed out that increasing concerns about economic growth in the US and a potential sharp correction in stock markets could negatively impact the cryptocurrency market.
The analyst stated that Bitcoin’s valuation against gold has not yet given a definitive bottom signal. Considering the possibility of the Bitcoin/gold ratio falling back to the historically seen level of 10, Cowen noted that in a scenario where gold is at $5,000, Bitcoin could be at $50,000, and if gold is at $6,000, it could be at $60,000. He added that this is more of a possible macroeconomic scenario than a direct price target.
Cowen also argued that if Bitcoin were to fall again and form a new low above its current level, it could have a more negative impact on the market than expected. He stated that such a move could damage investor confidence and pave the way for a longer recession that could extend into 2027.
