Coffee stocks are running low, and soft commodities show divergent trends.

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智通财经2026/10/16 11:06

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Arabica coffee futures climbed to a 1-month high on Friday, as concerns mounted over persistently low exchange inventories and slower-than-expected replenishment.
The contract briefly touched around $3.11 per pound during the session, posting a weekly gain of about 7% to 8%, and finally settled at around $3.09.
Certified exchange inventories dropped to about 240,000 bags, not far from last month's 27-year low of approximately 220,000 bags.
Traders noted that the market is worried about Brazil's supply not arriving at exchange warehouses before the December contract expires, making the tight inventory situation hard to alleviate in the short term.
El Niño weather may suppress Brazil's next season output, and the recent strengthening of the Brazilian real both provide support to coffee prices.
Robusta coffee also surged, rising about 3% to trade near $3,470 per ton.
Harvesting of Vietnam's new crop is gradually starting, with the industry expecting output to be roughly on par with last year, but El Niño conditions may impact the 2027/28 crop.
London cocoa fell by about 1%, having previously hit a one-and-a-half-month high midweek; New York cocoa also edged down slightly.
Cocoa grindings in major global processing regions rose by over 14% in Q3, with demand continuing to recover from the 2025 trough; some institutions believe demand has rebounded from the 2024 slump caused by surging prices.
Raw sugar fell about 2% after touching a 19-month high on Wednesday, while sugar output in Brazil’s Central-South region declined 6% year-on-year in the latter half of September.
Excess rainfall from El Niño has slowed Brazil’s production and lowered sugar content in cane, drought in Europe has affected beet crops, and India is also impacted by drought.
Market sentiment was disrupted by concerns over Trump’s tariff comments, with upcoming focus on weather changes in production regions and the pace of inventory replenishment.

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Coffee stocks are running low, and soft commodities show divergent trends.

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