France is not the new Greece, but the fiscal warning signals are similar.

(1) France's recent political and fiscal challenges have drawn comparisons to the Eurozone debt crisis, and while some indicators are indeed similar, key differences mean equating the situation to Greece in 2010 is inaccurate. (2) The Greek crisis began with a statistical revision, and market doubts about the credibility of the data persisted throughout, whereas France's issues are more about a long-standing failure to meet fiscal targets, resulting in a different kind of erosion of credibility. (3) France's current debt ratio is similar to Italy's in 2011 and Greece's in 2009, with a wider fiscal deficit and a primary deficit close to 3% of GDP; bridging this gap requires political consensus that France has struggled to achieve since the 1970s. (4) Unlike Greece, France's current account is basically balanced, household savings rate is around 18%, and the effective interest rate on outstanding debt is still lower than nominal GDP growth, making this more of a fiscal than a financing issue. (5) The Eurozone has now established crisis firewalls and rescue mechanisms, which, although mainly designed for smaller economies, overall provide significantly stronger risk resistance than sixteen years ago. (6) In conclusion, concerns about a new round of Eurozone debt crisis are likely overstated, but concerns about insufficient political will in France and the EU to push forward reforms and sustainable public finances are not unwarranted.