Barclays (BCS.US) bets on a merger between Tesla (TSLA.US) and SpaceX (SPCX.US) in December, but prediction markets give only a 19% probability.

According to Woofun AI, despite rising rumors of a merger between Elon Musk's Tesla (TSLA.US) and SpaceX (SPCX.US), analyst Dan Levy from Barclays (BCS.US) has made an aggressive prediction that the two companies could join forces as early as December this year. However, prediction markets have responded tepidly, with the short-term probability of a merger priced at an extremely low level.

The core rationale behind the merger is to achieve vertical integration of AI technology. Levy speculates that the news could be announced at the beginning of December, just before Tesla's (TSLA.US) annual shareholder meeting. However, if the process is delayed until October or even early November, obtaining authorization will face significant challenges. In terms of governance structure, SpaceX (SPCX.US) has a dual-class share structure, with each B-class share having ten times the voting power of an A-class share; Elon Musk controls SpaceX (SPCX.US) using about 85% of voting rights after the IPO.

In contrast, Tesla (TSLA.US) had a voting power of 19.9% as shown in documents from June 2026—below its previously sought target of 25%. At the 2025 shareholders’ meeting, 11% of unvoted shares were counted as no votes due to broker non-voting, highlighting insufficient shareholder participation. Critics warn that further concentration of voting rights could weaken shareholders' interests. On Wednesday night, SPCX's share price fell to $148.99 (down 2.08%), and TSLA dropped to $363.31 (down 1.05%), although Elon Musk emphasized that the two parties have already engaged in deep collaboration across multiple areas.

According to aggregated data from Woofun AI, prediction markets are cautious regarding the merger timeline. In February this year, SpaceX (SPCX.US) acquired xAI at a valuation of $1.25 trillion, yet expectations for a Tesla (TSLA.US) and SpaceX (SPCX.US) merger are markedly different. On the Kalshi platform, the probability of a merger between the two companies is only 19%; the likelihood of a merger by May 2027 is 52%, and by 2028 it rises to 71%. Polymarket data corroborates this trend: the chance of a merger by December 2026 is 24%, and only reaches 63% by December 31, 2027. This indicates that the market favors long-term integration over short-term moves.

The stark contrast between analysts’ aggressive forecasts and the market’s lackluster response highlights deep-seated obstacles stemming from governance complexity and shareholder dynamics. Following the xAI acquisition, this is yet another critical test for Elon Musk’s expanding empire, and the window for a short-term merger seems unlikely to open.