Institutions expect the US September CPI to rise, driven by gasoline and food prices.

Institutional analysis indicates that, driven by rising gasoline and food costs, U.S. consumer prices in September may rise sharply, adding a series of adverse factors for Trump and his Republican Party ahead of the November 3 midterm elections. Previous surveys showed that consumer confidence had deteriorated and that Trump’s approval rating had fallen due to rising living costs. A Reuters/Ipsos poll showed that about 78% of Americans blamed price increases on Trump’s policies, including higher tariffs and the U.S.-Israel war on Iran, while price increases have outpaced wage growth. However, the September CPI report is expected to show that core prices, excluding food and energy, have risen moderately, reducing the urgency for the Federal Reserve to raise rates again this month. Economists say the slowdown in core CPI offers little comfort to consumers, especially those at the bottom of the “K-shaped economy.” “People care about food and energy—that’s what they feel every day,” said Loyola Marymount University professor of finance and economics Sung Won Sohn, noting that food and energy are daily expenses that ordinary people directly experience. A large number of voters are at the bottom of the K-shaped economy and are bearing the brunt of rising energy and food prices, which is very likely to shape the outcome of this election.