Bitcoin Could Be Entering a New Bull Market Despite Latest Sell-Off

Despite the market dip and liquidations over the past week, Bitcoin has seemingly entered a bull market, as the analysis of its 50-week moving average shows. BloFin Research argues that Bitcoins traditional four-year boom-and-bust cycle is gradually losing strength. Future rallies could deliver smaller gains, followed by shorter and less severe downturns. Why Bitcoins Bear Market May Already Be Over The strongest evidence comes from Bitcoins recovery above its 50-week moving average, a technical indicator that previously signaled bull-market transitions in 2015, 2019 and 2023. Bitcoin reclaimed this level near $78,800 in September. It subsequently traded above $86,000 in early October. Meanwhile, Bitcoins MVRV ratio, which compares its current market value with the average price investors paid for their coins, moved above its annual average. As of October 11, MVRV stood near 1.54, above its 365-day average of 1.44. This suggests the longer-term recovery remains intact despite recent selling. It means Bitcoins market strength is improving, a signal that has previously appeared during the early stages of bull markets. Bitcoin MVRV Ratio. Source: Glassnode Bitcoins Historic Crashes Are Getting Smaller BloFins most significant finding concerns the declining severity of Bitcoins market cycles. Bitcoin fell approximately 53% from its October 2025 peak of $124,824 to $58,525 in June 2026. Previous bear markets were considerably worse: Bear marketPeak-to-trough decline2013201584.5%2017201883.8%2021202276.7%2025202653% Bull-market gains have also narrowed. Bitcoins trough-to-peak returns have declined from roughly 530 times in its earliest cycle to eight times in the most recent one. If June remains the bottom, the latest bear market lasted approximately eight months, compared with 1213 months historically. How Bitcoins Bull-Market Returns Have Narrowed. Source: BloFin Research Institutional Investors Are Changing Bitcoins Cycle BloFin Research attributes much of this change to longer-term ownership. In September, approximately 16.64 million BTC, or 83% of circulating supply, had remained unmoved for at least 155 days. Meanwhile, US spot Bitcoin ETFs held around 1.3 million BTC on October 2. Public companies owned another 1.29 million BTC. Together, ETFs and corporate treasuries controlled approximately 13% of circulating Bitcoin. However, last weeks $679 million ETF outflow shows that institutional demand can still weaken sharply during market stress. What Happens to Bitcoins New Bull Market? Bitcoin was trading around $83,000 on October 11, still above the September moving-average breakout level and well above its June low. The four-year cycle also remains visible. Bitcoin peaked roughly 18 months after the April 2024 halving, consistent with historical patterns. Bitcoin Price Against Its Realized Price. Source: BloFin Research For traders, a sustained move below the current 50-week moving average would weaken the bullish signal. A break beneath $58,525 would challenge the proposed cycle bottom. For now, Bitcoins longer-term recovery indicators remain positive. The recent ETF withdrawals show why the transition toward a more stable market could still involve sharp corrections. Read the article at BeInCrypto