US Stock Market Preview | All Three Major Stock Index Futures Fall, Oil Prices Surge Over 4%, SpaceX, Broadcom, and Oracle Simultaneously Advance Chip Financing

Pre-market Market Movements

1. On Thursday, October 8, before the U.S. stock market opened, all three major U.S. stock index futures fell. As of press time, Dow Jones futures were down 0.80%, S&P 500 index futures fell 0.46%, and Nasdaq futures declined 0.68%.

2. As of press time, Germany's DAX index was down 1.00%, the UK's FTSE 100 was down 0.21%, France's CAC40 fell 0.61%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 declined 1.04%.

3. As of press time, WTI crude rose 4.53% to $92.28/barrel. Brent crude rose 4.49% to $104.70/barrel.

Market News

Federal Reserve Governor Waller: Rate hikes do not need to happen at consecutive meetings; dot plot reflects a rate hike in early 2027 followed by a cut. Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that further rate hikes are still needed to bring inflation down to the 2% target, but they do not need to be implemented at consecutive meetings. Waller expects the 2027 dot plot may reflect a path of a rate hike at the beginning of the year, followed by a rate cut. He also indicated that investments in AI infrastructure and energy shocks make inflation pressures more persistent, and that the U.S. economy is strengthening in the second half of the year.

Fed Minutes: Most officials expect one more rate hike by year-end; the path of rate hikes is a prudent measure. The latest meeting minutes show that Fed officials expect to raise interest rates one more time before the end of the year to curb inflation, which has remained above target for more than five years. However, the minutes did not specify when policymakers expected the rate hike, only indicating that persistently high prices and a stable labor market could prompt the Fed to hike for a second time this year. The September meeting discussion showed that officials believe inflation still poses sticky risks, while the labor market is "near full employment" and overall economic growth has accelerated.

Oil prices rebound again as Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and U.S. Gulf of Mexico production shut-in. On Thursday, oil prices rose by about 4%. This was attributed to escalating Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, another oil tanker attack incident in the Persian Gulf, and Hurricane Isaias approaching the northern U.S. Gulf Coast, expanding the scale of U.S. offshore oil production outages.

French corporate debt risk now exceeds 38% of French corporate bonds. France currently has about 215 billion euros ($241 billion) in corporate bonds, and their trading performance now shows lower risk premiums than French government bonds. After a mass sell-off of sovereign debt, this scale has nearly increased 18 times since early 2026. As of Wednesday, data showed about 38% of all high-rated French corporate debt had yields lower than government bonds of the same maturity. By comparison, at the beginning of the year, this figure was only 12 billion euros.

Saudi Arabia plans to allow shipments outside the Strait of Hormuz and is considering changing the crude oil pricing benchmark. According to reports, Saudi Arabia is negotiating with clients to offer the option to ship outside the Strait of Hormuz in next year’s long-term crude supply contracts, formally incorporating temporary transfer arrangements used during the Iran war into contract mechanisms. Sources said negotiations are ongoing and must be concluded by the end of this year. Saudi Aramco is also reportedly discussing other adjustments, including allowing clients to choose different crude pricing benchmarks, or even having Saudi Aramco deliver crude directly to Asian customers.

World Meteorological Organization: El Niño is expected to intensify and persist until February 2027. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) stated in its monthly climate bulletin on Thursday that this year’s El Niño phenomenon will further intensify before peaking in December and is nearly 100% likely to persist until February 2027, potentially reaching one of the strongest levels since at least 1950. At the same time, sea surface temperatures are expected to reach record highs; in the core El Niño region—the central and eastern tropical Pacific—sea surface temperatures from October to December are forecasted to be 3.7°C (6.7°F) above normal.

Trump says he is not interested in reaching a deal with Iran. U.S. President Trump said he is no longer seeking a deal with Iran. Previously, reports said the U.S. military was preparing potential strikes against Iran, possibly before the midterm elections. “I don’t think this agreement is something I really want to do, but they’re willing to offer any conditions in exchange for a ceasefire,” Trump said. He added that U.S. Middle East envoy Whitcock had been working on the deal and that “progress is going very smoothly.”

Individual Stock News

Samsung (SSNLF.US) Q3 operating profit surged 783%. On Thursday, Samsung Electronics announced its preliminary Q3 results, showing third-quarter operating profit surged 783% year-on-year and 20.01% quarter-on-quarter, slightly exceeding analyst expectations, mainly due to surging AI chip demand driving strong growth in its memory business. Regulatory filings showed the world’s largest memory chip maker expects operating profit of 107.4 trillion KRW ($80.17 billion) for July to September, beating the market estimate of 106.1 trillion KRW. This marks Samsung’s fourth consecutive quarter of record operating profit; revenue for Q3 was 195 trillion KRW, up 127% year-on-year, versus the expected 199 trillion KRW. Samsung will release the full earnings report later this month.

TSMC (TSM.US) Q3 revenue grows 50%. On Thursday, TSMC announced that strong AI application-driven demand pushed third-quarter revenue to NT$1.49 trillion ($46.71 billion), up 50% year-on-year to a record high, surpassing the NT$1.46 trillion market expectation. TSMC’s robust sales growth reinforced market confidence in AI demand. The Q3 earnings call will focus on outlooks for 2027 and beyond; pricing is also a key point, with reports that TSMC’s wafer prices may rise 3% to 6% in 2027.

PepsiCo (PEP.US) lowers earnings outlook as North America recovery lags expectations. On Thursday, PepsiCo’s quarterly profits and revenue both beat analyst expectations, bolstered by international growth, but its North American business remained sluggish. Q3 net profit attributable to the company was $3.05 billion, below last year’s $2.6 billion. Adjusted for special items, EPS was $2.34. Net sales rose 5.6% to $25.27 billion. Organic revenue grew 3.1% this quarter. The company also lowered its full-year earnings expectations as domestic challenges weighed on profits. Pepsi now expects core EPS to grow 2.5% to 3.5%, below the previous 5%-7% lower bound. The company now forecasts net revenue growth around 6%, at the high end of the earlier 4%-6% guidance.

SpaceX (SPCX.US), Broadcom (AVGO.US), Oracle (ORCL.US) all seeking funding. According to sources, in recent weeks, Broadcom has been arranging over $50 billion in financing for a custom AI chip project in partnership with OpenAI. Sources added Apollo Global Management (APO.US) and Blackstone (BX.US) are among banks negotiating participation, though talks are still early and deal size may change. Additionally, Oracle is discussing funding for a large-scale chip purchase with Apollo and Goldman Sachs (GS.US). Media reports also say SpaceX is seeking to raise $40 billion for Nvidia (NVDA.US) chip purchases via financing led by Apollo. SpaceX reportedly plans to raise about $10 billion via bank loans and another $30 billion via investment-grade bonds to support its massive chip order.

Bezos: Blue Origin may IPO within the next few years. Blue Origin founder Jeff Bezos said the company is very likely to go public within the next few years after completing its first round of external funding and raising several billion dollars. “I now have a clearer view of Blue Origin’s financial prospects and, after this financing, Blue Origin is likely justified in becoming a public company at some point in the future,” Bezos said, adding that the process “could be a few years away.” Bezos revealed the company recently raised $10 billion from outside investors and that more funding may be raised in the future. He also mentioned plans to test fly the “New Glenn” rocket again in December, which is designed to compete with SpaceX’s flagship Falcon 9.

SK Hynix (SKHY.US) subsidiary Solidigm reportedly selects Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley (MS.US) for U.S. IPO. Sources revealed SK Hynix’s flash memory subsidiary Solidigm has selected Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to lead its U.S. IPO next year. JPMorgan (JPM.US), Citigroup (C.US), and UBS (UBS.US) have also been invited to participate. Solidigm could go public as early as 2027, with a possible valuation up to $100 billion. The arrangements are still under discussion and more banks may join.

U.S. Department of Defense plans $1.5 billion loan for up to 7.5% Wolfspeed (WOLF.US) warrant stake. The U.S. Department of Defense will provide chipmaker Wolfspeed with a conditional senior guaranteed loan commitment of up to $1.5 billion for up to 30 years to support domestic silicon carbide and wide bandgap power device production. According to pending deal terms, Wolfspeed will grant the DoD warrants to purchase up to 7.5% of the company in tranches. Last July, Wolfspeed filed for bankruptcy due to production issues at a key silicon carbide wafer plant; the company said it will use the funds to expand silicon carbide material and power device output for telecom, aerospace, and defense, and upgrade supply of related materials for military communications systems. As of press time, Wolfspeed’s pre-market share price was up over 11%.

Key economic data and events preview

20:15 Beijing time: Bank of England Governor Bailey speaks.

20:30 Beijing time: U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending October 3.

22:00 Beijing time: U.S. final wholesale inventories for August MoM.

01:00 next day (Beijing time): U.S. 30-year Treasury bond auction for October 8.

01:40 next day (Beijing time): 2028 FOMC voting member, St. Louis Fed President Musalem speaks.

Earnings Preview

Friday morning: Delta Air Lines (DAL.US)