Nordic power forward prices rise as Middle East tensions and drought expectations jointly drive up the energy sector
智通财经2026/10/08 12:08On Thursday, Nordic power forward contracts rose, driven by strength in European natural gas and German electricity markets. The region is highly dependent on hydropower, and weather forecasts indicate drier conditions ahead, further supporting electricity prices. The Nordic base load power contract for next quarter increased by 2.05 euros or 1.87%, closing at 111.5 euros per megawatt-hour. The annual contract for the following year rose by 0.9 euros or 1.34%, settling at 68.1 euros per megawatt-hour. Analysts noted that tensions in the Middle East are spreading, and coupled with expectations of dry weather, Nordic electricity prices are likely to remain strong. Additionally, an attack on an oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz has dampened expectations for LNG deliveries, pushing Dutch and UK natural gas prices to two-week highs.
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(1) According to quotations, Urals crude currently has a premium of about $10 per barrel over spot Brent, inferred to be the landed price at Indian ports. (2) Meanwhile, institutional assessments show that in early October, Urals crude FOB from Russian ports was trading at a discount of around $35 per barrel, compared to about $29.5 per barrel in September. (3) These discount changes have undoubtedly been affected by the general increase in shipping costs, but the net price is still about $92 per barrel. (4) There is no single price for Urals crude; various quotations appear to come from unnamed traders. (5) Despite the threat of new U.S. sanctions, global demand for Russian or other origin crude, particularly those with higher diesel yields—such as Urals and ESPO blend crude—remains relatively resilient. (6) From a logical perspective, the divergence in quotations reflects multiple pricing factors, including transportation, sanctions, and quality differences, while the strong demand for crudes with high diesel yields provides underlying support. (7) Looking ahead, key areas of focus include the enforcement intensity of sanctions, the direction of shipping costs, and changes in the purchasing pace of major buyers such as India.
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