ConocoPhillips Strong Operations Seen Offsetting Middle East, Surmont Headwinds, UBS Says
MT newswire2026/10/07 18:4902:49 PM EDT, 10/07/2026 (MT Newswires) -- ConocoPhillips (COP) is likely to accelerate share repurchases as it works to catch up on its 2026 shareholder return commitment, with strong operations helping offset Middle East disruptions and lower Surmont volumes, UBS said in a note Tuesday. UBS said the company returned about 40% of cash from operations in H1 and needs to move toward 50% in H2 to meet its 45% full-year target. The firm forecasts buybacks of $2.5 billion in Q3 and $2.75 billion in Q4. The firm expects new CEO Andy O'Brien, on his first earnings call, to stick to the company's playbook of disciplined capital allocation and return on capital, while giving a positive update on long-term projects. The firm forecasts Q3 adjusted EPS of $3.10, above the Street's $2.96, and expects consensus to move toward its estimate as models are updated for commodity prices. UBS reiterated the company's buy rating and $169 price target. Price: 129.40, Change: +0.05, Percent Change: +0.03
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In September, Japanese investors withdrew from foreign bond markets for the second consecutive month.
Reuters, October 8 – In September, Japanese investors became net sellers of foreign bonds for the second consecutive month, driven by rising borrowing costs in the US and Europe, as well as increasingly attractive domestic yields that prompted them to withdraw from overseas bond markets. Data released by Japan's Ministry of Finance on Tuesday showed that Japanese investors were net sellers of 969 billion yen ($613 million) in foreign bonds last month, which was lower than the previous month's net sales of 1.16 trillion yen. They net sold 1.43 trillion yen in long-term foreign currency bonds—a six-month high—while purchasing about 457 billion yen in short-term notes. The increase in Japanese interest rates is beginning to attract some of the country's vast overseas investments back home, marking a significant shift in global capital flows. Year to date, Japanese investors have net sold about 5.08 trillion yen in foreign bonds, the highest since 2022. This capital outflow could support the yen’s exchange rate and put pressure on bond markets that have long considered Japan a major buyer. Soaring energy costs have heightened inflation concerns, prompting the Federal Reserve (FED) and the European Central Bank to raise interest rates in September, which has further pressured global bond markets. Earlier this week, Japan's benchmark 10-year government bond yield rose to 3.122%, its highest in 30 years, increasing the appeal of domestic bonds. In September, led by the Bank of Japan, Japanese institutions sold a net 2.49 trillion yen in long-term foreign bonds, a seven-month high. Life insurance companies and investment trust managers also recorded net sales of 288.6 billion yen and 200.1 billion yen respectively. However, trust accounts net purchased 1.2 trillion yen in long-term foreign currency bonds, highlighting divergent investment strategies among Japanese institutional investors. Another Bank of Japan report showed that in the first eight months of this year, Japanese investors net sold 4.74 trillion yen in US Treasuries, while net purchasing 355.85 billion yen in European bonds. Within Europe, Japanese investors net bought 329.82 billion yen in Italian bonds, while net selling 208.59 billion yen and 94.25 billion yen in French and German bonds, respectively. (1 US dollar = 158.1400 yen)

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