Crude oil declines and refined oil pricing diverges

智通财经2026/10/06 13:06

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(1) Some analysts believe that the recent decline in crude oil prices may be due to increased traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which could further exceed the capacity of refineries. (2) Crude oil prices have become less representative of transportation fuel costs, as the supply and demand for crude oil and that for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel have become two relatively independent markets. (3) The former involves producers and refineries, while the latter involves refineries and end consumers. (4) As of last week, from the perspective of gasoline buyers, the "perceived" price of WTI was about $120 per barrel. (5) For diesel buyers, this "perceived" price was about $180 per barrel. (6) The disconnect between refined product prices and crude oil prices suggests that simply observing crude oil trends may underestimate actual fuel cost pressures. (7) Moving forward, attention should be paid to refinery utilization rates, the crack spread of refined products, and changes in shipping volumes through the Strait.

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(1) Some opinions suggest that the current decline in crude oil prices may be due to increased traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which could further exceed refinery capacity. (2) The representative nature of crude oil prices as a transportation fuel cost has weakened, since the supply and demand for crude oil and that for gasoline, diesel, and aviation fuel have been split into two relatively independent markets. (3) The former involves producers and refineries, while the latter involves refineries and end consumers. (4) As of last week, from the perspective of gasoline buyers, the “felt” price of WTI was about $120 per barrel. (5) From the perspective of diesel buyers, this “felt” price was about $180 per barrel. (6) The disconnect between refined oil and crude oil prices means that simply observing crude oil trends may underestimate actual fuel cost pressure. (7) Going forward, attention should be paid to refinery capacity utilization, refined oil crack spreads, and changes in strait transport volumes.

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智通财经•2026/10/10 03:51