US Stock Market Preview | All Three Major Index Futures Rise, Brent Crude Falls Below $100, US Treasury Yields Decline

Pre-market Market Trends

1. On Tuesday, October 6, before the U.S. stock market opened, all three major U.S. stock index futures rose together. As of press time, Dow futures rose 0.71%, S&P 500 index futures rose 0.50%, and Nasdaq futures rose 0.62%.

2. As of press time, Germany’s DAX index rose 0.73%, UK FTSE 100 index rose 0.35%, France’s CAC40 index rose 0.60%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index rose 0.70%.

3. As of press time, WTI crude oil fell 2.28% to $87.39 per barrel. Brent crude oil fell 2.34% to $97.97 per barrel.

Market News

Oil price falls below $100 + Bessant reassures, U.S. Treasury yields retreat from 2002 highs. U.S. Treasury yields have retreated from their highest levels since 2002, as oil prices fell below $100 a barrel and U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant insisted the government’s debt burden is manageable. The yields on 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasuries fell by 3 and 4 basis points, respectively, to 5.27% and 5.63%, while the 2-year yield remained mostly flat. On Tuesday, crude oil prices fell as signs emerged of more supply making its way through the Strait of Hormuz. This marks a pause in the global bond market sell-off, which was previously driven by inflation concerns over the U.S.-Iran conflict and heightened expectations of further tightening by the Federal Reserve. Bessant sought to reassure investors, saying that a combination of economic growth and spending restrictions would “soon” begin to alter the U.S. government's borrowing path. On Monday evening, in a fireside chat in Pennsylvania, he stated the government would begin to "reverse this trend."

Saudi East-West oil pipeline resumes to 5.8 million barrels per day. On October 6 local time, Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman stated that currently, the east-west pipeline's daily capacity has recovered to 5.8 million barrels. He said it took Saudi only five to six days to restore the operation of the pipeline after it suffered a "serious attack." Previously, this pipeline was closed on September 10 due to a drone strike launched from Iraq. A source familiar with the matter revealed late last week that Saudi Aramco, the state-owned oil company, has raised the throughput of this pipeline to nearly 6 million barrels per day, which is more than 80% of its total capacity. About 4.5 million barrels per day of crude oil can be exported via Yanbu Port on Saudi’s Red Sea coast.

Investors start saying “no” to high AI valuations, Wall Street IPO activities plummet. Wall Street's IPO activities have slowed to a trickle as investor demand for new listings remains subdued and worries about overly high valuations mount, putting pressure on what was expected to be a boom quarter for IPOs. The delayed listings of Anthropic and OpenAI have also dampened sentiment in the U.S. equity capital markets. “Right now, no one cares about any company other than Anthropic,” said the head of equity capital markets at a large American asset management firm. Investment bankers’ robust business this year has largely been fueled by SpaceX’s June IPO. But mounting concerns over a downturn in the AI sector and public opposition to data centers have also dried up the IPO market in recent weeks. The banker added that investors are increasingly questioning the "out of touch" valuations of companies associated with the AI investment boom. According to BCA Research data, tech stocks listed this year have dropped an average of about 23% since their first trading day, exacerbating concerns that banks are setting deal prices too high just to win underwriting business.

Historic moment! Pure gasoline car sales share falls below 50% globally for the first time. According to the latest data from Mobility Global, in the first half of 2026, pure gasoline cars accounted for 49% of new car sales globally—the first time ever this share has fallen below half and a significant drop of 24% from 73% in 2021. The data also showed that in the first half of this year, the overall car market contracted about 5%, while pure gasoline car sales dropped twice as much as the market average. Industry experts attribute the acceleration in market transition to oil prices, which have surged due to Middle East conflicts, pushing consumers to seek lower-cost vehicle options. Geographically, China saw the largest drop, with gasoline car sales down 26% year-on-year in the first half, followed by Europe at 13%. As for pure electric vehicles, sales in Europe rose 32% year-on-year to 1.81 million units; in Southeast Asia, sales rose 81% to 350,000 units, and sales in Oceania doubled to 110,000 units.

Individual Stock News

Google (GOOGL.US) spends $4.3 billion to buy power, locks in 3,590 MW long-term supply from Constellation Energy (CEG.US). Google has signed an agreement with the largest U.S. grid operator, Constellation Energy, to purchase 3,590 megawatts of electricity, with about a quarter of that coming from newly built nuclear power. The two companies said the deal would bring over $4.3 billion in new investment to Constellation and involves expanding several nuclear reactors in the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic. Large tech companies are scrambling to secure massive electricity supply across the United States for their data centers, signing unprecedented contracts with U.S. power companies. In the past two years, Constellation announced deals to restart the Three Mile Island nuclear reactor in Pennsylvania for Microsoft data centers, while Google signed to restart NextEra Energy’s nuclear power station in Iowa. Google shares were up 0.5% pre-market; Constellation rose more than 7%.

AMD (AMD.US) CEO Lisa Su: Chip demand will remain “very high”, urges AI companies to enhance safety cooperation. On Tuesday, AMD CEO Lisa Su stated that chip demand will remain “very high” over the next few years, even as the industry faces challenges such as concerns over AI safety. She said that even if AMD increases production, demand will still outpace supply. She called on top AI companies to work together to ensure the technology does not cause harm. AMD’s optimism further reinforced the bullish sentiment in the AI industry, as strong guidance from Micron Technology and better-than-expected quarterly sales from Foxconn bear out. However, some investors are increasingly concerned about industry overcapacity, rising debt levels, and regulatory setbacks. During her visit to supply chain partners, including TSMC, Su said: “We've also increased our own supply and capacity in 2026, but I can confidently say that demand is even higher than our supply. We will significantly increase supply in 2027, but we’ll still need more.” AMD shares were up 1.6% pre-market.

New York securities industry targets $90 billion profit! Goldman Sachs (GS.US) breaks three quarterly records, Wall Street bonuses to hit historic highs. Trading and investment banking firms in New York are experiencing a stellar year, with profits for the industry expected to exceed $90 billion at current pace and bonuses forecast to reach historic highs. According to a report by New York State Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli, this annual profit estimate is based on first-half 2026 growth and would easily surpass last year’s $65.1 billion record. DiNapoli said that unless there is significant economic disruption, this windfall should translate into a record-setting set of bonuses for the entire industry in the new year, though he offered no specific numbers. Driven by market volatility and renewed confidence in mergers and acquisitions, major Wall Street investment banks have already reported record revenues in key business lines this year. For example, Goldman Sachs has now broken all-time quarterly records for equities trading for three consecutive quarters. Goldman Sachs shares rose 1% pre-market.

AI + aerospace “dual engine” launched! Goldman Sachs raises SpaceX (SPCX.US) target to $230. Ahead of SpaceX (SPCX.US) announcing its Q3 2026 results on November 5 ET, Goldman Sachs recently updated its research report, revising forecasts upward for the company’s AI business—including compute capacity, revenues, and profit margins—based on recent deal activity, public statements, and progress on key enterprise use cases and models. Goldman Sachs reiterated its “Buy” rating on SpaceX, raising its 12-month target price from $220 to $230, a nearly 45% implied upside from last Friday’s close. The bank continues to believe that SpaceX is well positioned for expansion in the following areas: space (launch and reusability), connectivity (broadband and mobile satellite constellations), and AI (compute power, X, etc.). Each of these markets has the potential to evolve into trillion-dollar opportunities over a time horizon of more than five years. Meanwhile, Goldman remains positive on the merged group’s vertical integration strategy and the resulting structural cost and competitive advantages, expecting these advantages to further accumulate and gain momentum in coming years. SpaceX was up 0.4% pre-market.

McDonald’s (MCD.US) faces class action in the U.S.! Accused of illegally manipulating menu prices using AI pricing system. The lawsuit was filed last Friday, alleging McDonald’s colluded with independent franchisees to manipulate prices with an algorithm trained on non-public data, in violation of U.S. antitrust law. The lawsuit cited news reports and pointed out that other fast food chains are also using AI-assisted pricing and other operational functions. It states: “Independently operated businesses must independently set their own prices.” In a statement on Monday, McDonald’s called the allegations "baseless and unsupported." The company said: "AI does not set the price for the Big Mac or any other menu item." McDonald’s stated that franchisees make their own pricing decisions, and the use of pricing and analytics tools is common across industries. McDonald's was up 0.4% pre-market.

Reports: Seagate (STX.US) and Toshiba compete for TDK’s hard disk drive head business. According to reports, Seagate Technology is in fierce competition with Toshiba for TDK’s HDD head business. Sources said Toshiba began talks with TDK in the spring, and Seagate later made a higher bid in the summer. The transaction could be worth up to several billion dollars. The winner will control a crucial link in the HDD market supply chain, currently dominated by three companies. TDK is now the only independent manufacturer of HDD magnetic recording heads, supplying both bidders as well as Western Digital (WDC.US). Seagate fell 2% pre-market, and Western Digital fell nearly 3% pre-market.

Key Economic Data and Event Preview

20:15 Beijing time: U.S. ADP Employment Weekly Change for the week ending September 19

20:30 Beijing time: U.S. August Trade Balance

21:05 Beijing time: FOMC permanent voting member, New York Fed President Williams chairs the 2026 Governance and Culture Reform Conference hosted by the Fed.

22:05 Beijing time: September Global Supply Chain Pressure Index

00:00 next day Beijing time: EIA Short-term Energy Outlook monthly report release

07:00 next morning Beijing time: 2026 FOMC voting member, Dallas Fed President Logan gives a speech