Energy executives warn: shipping and refinery bottlenecks could cause oil market turmoil to persist for years

智通财经2026/10/06 01:36

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(1) Energy industry executives stated at a conference in London on Monday that shipping bottlenecks, significant refinery cutbacks, and inventory drawdowns that may take years to replenish will keep global oil prices high beyond this year. (2) Tengku Muhammad Taufik, CEO of Malaysia's national oil company Petronas, said that market turmoil will persist for most of the time until the end of this year, and possibly until 2027. (3) Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser, speaking publicly for the first time since the outbreak of the Iran war, said that emergency measures tapping into oil stockpiles globally may take up to two years to restore. He noted that pressures at both "ends of the barrel" will intensify until the Strait of Hormuz is fully reopened and market confidence is restored; even if the situation improves afterward, restoring inventories while meeting demand could still take up to two years. "Both ends of the barrel" refers to unprocessed crude oil and refined products like diesel and jet fuel. He also mentioned that since the conflict began, the world has lost 3 billion barrels of crude oil, with global inventories down by 1 billion barrels. (4) ConocoPhillips Executive Chairman Ryan Lance stated that, due to the current crisis, global oil demand has declined this year and may not recover until 2028 or 2029, but is expected to return to a growth trajectory afterward. He anticipates the U.S. crude oil price floor will rise to around $70 per barrel, with mid-cycle prices between $65 and $70 per barrel; if oil prices remain firm, U.S. crude output could exceed 14 to 14.5 million barrels per day, though he did not specify the exact level of "firm" prices.

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