US Stock Market Movement: Moderna Surges on October 5th—Included in Nasdaq 100, Oncology Pipeline, and COO Appointment

According to CME "FedWatch", there is a 79.5% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged by October, and a 20.5% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike. By December, there is a 15.5% probability that rates will remain unchanged, a 68.0% chance of a cumulative 25 basis point increase, and a 16.5% probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate hike.

According to eight sources on Tuesday, Venezuela's Cardón refinery, the country's second largest with a daily processing capacity of 310,000 barrels, has suspended operations due to a fire at one of its processing units. Fires, power outages, and blackouts frequently occur at facilities operated by state-owned Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA), which may affect domestic supplies of essential fuels like gasoline and diesel. Two of the sources indicated that the fire began in a gas pipeline connected to the refinery's diesel hydrotreater, forcing the shutdown of the entire facility, including the boiler. According to informed sources and nearby residents, the blaze was extinguished in less than an hour after an explosion and the evacuation of personnel. No worker injuries have been reported at this time.

According to statistics released by the Brazilian government on Tuesday, the country's oil exports reached a historic peak in September 2024, totaling 11.7 million tonnes. Domestic oil production increased and robust global market demand jointly drove up the export shipping volume for the month. The September export shipment volume has already surpassed the previous monthly record of 11 million tonnes set in March 2023. Compared with the same period last year, oil exports in September rose by 42.2%, and export revenues surged by 77.3%, reaching approximately $6.5 billion. This remarkable export performance was the result of record high Brazilian oil production and rising international market demand. Recent conflicts between the US and Israel and Iran have created pressure on global oil circulation; if shipping through the crucial Strait of Hormuz is disrupted, crude oil prices may soar. Meanwhile, Brazil’s oil production is benefiting from continuous expansion and development of its pre-salt oil fields, particularly the sustained capacity releases from the Buzios and Mero blocks in the Santos Basin, providing a solid supply foundation for export growth.

For the week ending October 2, US API crude oil inventories decreased by 2.1 million barrels, compared to an increase of 1.019 million barrels in the previous week. During the same period, US API gasoline inventories fell by 1.4 million barrels, following an increase of 2.991 million barrels in the previous week. US API Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 866,000 barrels, compared to an increase of 233,000 barrels in the previous week. Note: API crude oil inventory data is an industry indicator released by the American Petroleum Institute reflecting weekly changes in US crude oil inventories, and fluctuations in this data often influence international crude oil market price expectations.