This Week's Canadian Macroeconomics Data to Offer a Read on Q3 Growth, TD Says

MT newswire2026/10/05 14:29

10:29 AM EDT, 10/05/2026 (MT Newswires) -- This week's August international merchandise trade and September Labour Force Survey (LFS) should offer an early indication of underlying momentum and the impact of the recent US tariffs on the Canadian economy, TD Economics said in a note. August trade figures will be scrutinized for evidence of front-loading, with a spike in US shipments potentially followed by a marked pullback in September, tempering Statistics Canada's August growth estimate, wrote TD in Friday's note. The September LFS should provide an early read on the tariffs' effects, with weaker employment growth likely to place some upward pressure on the unemployment rate, said the bank. Despite stronger-than-expected third-quarter growth, exports and employment are expected to soften in the last quarter of the year as US tariffs and trade uncertainty weigh on activity. Tight financial conditions should also continue to dampen housing activity, TD added. StatsCan is scheduled to release August international merchandise trade on Tuesday and September LFS on Friday, both at 8:30 a.m. ET. Longer term, the liquefied natural gas and pipeline expansion in Kitimat, BC, alongside a new Alberta-West Coast pipeline could materially boost growth from 2027, said TD. At CA$33 billion for the former and CA$35 billion to CA$44 billion for the latter, the projects each amount to roughly 1% of Canada's gross domestic product, though construction timing remained uncertain.

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