US natural gas prices remain steady near one-week highs as demand expectations rise

智通财经2026/10/05 13:36

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(1) U.S. natural gas futures held steady near a one-week high on Monday, due to demand expectations for the next two weeks being higher than previously estimated, and pipeline issues in Kentucky resulting in a decrease in daily production. (2) Energy traders also noted that natural gas flows to LNG export plants have increased, supported by the anticipated resumption of one liquefaction unit at the Freeport LNG facility in Texas. (3) The front-month natural gas futures for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose by 1.3 cents, an increase of 0.4%, to $3.048 per million British thermal units, poised to settle for the second consecutive day at the highest since September 25. (4) The premium of the December contract relative to the November contract narrowed to a record low of about 28 cents per million British thermal units, indicating the market is not overly concerned about this winter’s natural gas supply. (5) Data from financial companies shows that, since October, average U.S. natural gas production in the lower 48 states fell to 111.7 billion cubic feet per day, down from a record high of 113.3 billion cubic feet per day in both August and September. (6) Production on Monday was expected to further drop to a four-month low of 109.3 billion cubic feet per day, partly due to the Kentucky pipeline issues. Texas Eastern Transmission, under Canadian energy company Enbridge, declared force majeure north of the Tompkinsville compressor station, with no clear timeline for resumption. (7) Record output and mild spring weather had kept inventories above the five-year average since March, with the surplus once reaching 7.7% above normal in April. However, a hot summer forced energy companies to heavily tap inventories for electricity generation, narrowing the surplus. (8) Analysts predict that, for the week ending October 2, the inventory surplus will drop to 1.8% above normal—down from 2.4% the previous week. The federal weekly inventory report will be released on Thursday. (9) Meteorologists forecast that, by October 20, nationwide weather will be close to normal, with both heating and cooling demand remaining low. Some institutions expect average U.S. natural gas demand, including exports, in the lower 48 states to stay around 106.2 billion cubic feet per day this week and next, higher than Friday's outlook. (10) Since October, average gas flow to the nine major U.S. LNG export plants has dropped to 16.9 billion cubic feet per day, down from 17.9 billion cubic feet per day in September and the April record high of 18.8 billion cubic feet per day. However, LNG feed gas on Monday was estimated to rise to a one-week high of 17.6 billion cubic feet per day, as gas flows to Freeport LNG in Texas are expected to increase.

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(1) U.S. natural gas futures held steady near a one-week high on Monday, as demand expectations for the next two weeks exceeded previous forecasts and pipeline issues in Kentucky led to declines in daily production. (2) Energy traders also noted that natural gas flowing to LNG export facilities increased, with one liquefaction unit at the Texas Freeport LNG facility expected to resume operations, providing support for prices. (3) The November near-month natural gas futures contract traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose by 1.3 cents, up 0.4%, to $3.048 per million British thermal units, and is poised to close at the highest level since September 25 for the second consecutive day. (4) The premium on the December contract relative to the November contract narrowed to a record low of about 28 cents per million British thermal units, indicating the market is not overly concerned about natural gas supplies this winter. (5) According to financial companies, since October, average natural gas production in the U.S. mainland 48 states has dropped to 111.7 billion cubic feet per day, below the record high of 113.3 billion cubic feet per day in both August and September. (6) Monday’s output is expected to drop further to 109.3 billion cubic feet per day, a four-month low, partly attributed to pipeline issues in Kentucky. Texas Eastern Transmission—a subsidiary of Canadian energy company Enbridge—declared force majeure north of the Tompkinsville compressor station due to an unscheduled outage, with a restoration date yet to be determined. (7) Record production and mild spring weather kept inventories above the five-year average since March; in April, they were 7.7% above normal levels. However, the hot summer forced energy firms to draw heavily from inventory for power generation, narrowing the surplus. (8) Analysts expect the inventory surplus as of the week ending October 2 to drop to 1.8% above normal levels, compared to 2.4% the previous week. The federal weekly inventory report will be released on Thursday. (9) Meteorologists forecast that nationwide weather will be largely close to normal through October 20, with both heating and cooling demand remaining low. Some institutions anticipate that this week and next, average U.S. mainland 48-state natural gas demand including exports will stay around 106.2 billion cubic feet per day, higher than last Friday’s outlook. (10) Since October, the average natural gas flow to the nine major U.S. LNG export plants has dropped to 16.9 billion cubic feet per day, lower than September’s 17.9 billion cubic feet per day and the April record high of 18.8 billion cubic feet per day. However, on Monday, LNG feed gas was expected to rise to a one-week high of 17.6 billion cubic feet per day, due to increased natural gas flows to Texas Freeport LNG.

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According to CME "FedWatch", there is a 79.5% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged by October, and a 20.5% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike. By December, there is a 15.5% probability that rates will remain unchanged, a 68.0% chance of a cumulative 25 basis point increase, and a 16.5% probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate hike.

智通财经•2026/10/06 22:26