What's Next for Tesla Stock After Strong Q3 Deliveries -- Barrons.com

By Al Root

With another strong delivery report in the books, investor attention turns to Tesla's third-quarter earnings report, coming on Oct. 21.

Friday, Tesla reported better-than-expected third-quarter deliveries of 486,532 vehicles. Wall Street was looking for 450,000 to 460,000 cars.

Unit sales rose 1% from the second quarter. Analysts were projecting a decline. Tesla also produced fewer cars than it sold-decreasing inventories-and deployed 13.7 gigawatts of stationary power, up from 13.5 gigawatts deployed in the second quarter.

Investors were pleased. Shares jumped 4.7% on Friday following the report.

Wall Street was impressed, too. Baird analyst Ben Kallo said the result reflected continued "strength," following Tesla's strong second-quarter delivery report. He didn't change his outlook for the stock, though. He rates shares Buy, and his price target remained $475.

Some caution remains on the Street, however. BNP Paribas analyst James Picariello wasn't surprised to see shares trade higher after the report. He, however, is more worried about Tesla's increased capital spending. Tesla plans to spend about $25 billion on new plants and equipment in 2026, up from less than $9 billion in 2025. Increased spending on AI efforts is pressuring free cash flow, which is expected to be negative in 2026, 2027, and 2028, according to FactSet.

Picariello rates shares Sell and has a $268 price target for the stock. JPMorgan analyst Rajat Gupta rates shares Hold and has a $415 price target.

Gupta kept his below-consensus third-quarter earnings estimates, following the delivery report. He's worried about higher spending and weaker gross profit margins amid price competition and lower government support for EVs.

Wall Street currently projects third-quarter earnings per share of 45 cents, down from 50 cents a year ago, but up from 33 cents reported in the second quarter of this year. Investors have a few more weeks to mull over exactly how deliveries will translate into Tesla's third-quarter earnings.

Tesla stock was up 0.1% in premarket trading Monday at $370.79, while S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were down about 0.1%.

Coming into Monday trading, Tesla stock was down about 14% over the past 12 months. Vehicle deliveries, and even third-quarter earnings, might not be enough for the stock. Investors want to see progress on Tesla's AI efforts.

Tesla launched a robo-taxi service in Austin, Texas, in June 2025, but scaling operations has been slow. What's more, it recently replaced its Model S and X capacity with robot-building capacity in Fremont, California. Investors, however, haven't seen the latest version of Tesla's humanoid robot, Optimus, yet.

Write to Al Root at allen.root@barrons.com.

This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

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October 05, 2026 08:10 ET (12:10 GMT)