RBC Sees Slight Increase in Canadian Jobs in September as New US Tariffs Kick In

MT newswire2026/10/05 11:07

07:07 AM EDT, 10/05/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Canada's September Labour Force Survey (LFS), due out this week, will provide the first full-month read on the impact of US Section 338 tariffs introduced on Aug. 22, though the hit should be limited by export diversification and government support, according to RBC Economics. The new US tariffs are expected to have slowed recent Canadian labor-market gains without reversing them, wrote RBC in a Friday note. Employment is forecast to rise by a modest 5,000 in September, keeping year-to-date job growth slightly positive, estimated the bank. The unemployment rate remains a more reliable gauge of underlying labor-market conditions, and it's expected to hold at 6.4% in September, added RBC. While still elevated, that would be 0.7 percentage point below its level a year earlier. Statistics Canada is slated to release September's LFS on Friday, at 8:30 a.m. ET.

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