Over the weekend, trading volume in the market remained dry for two consecutive days, but the bulls did not exit. Instead, they continued to build momentum through low-volatility sideways movement. This persisted until this morning’s weekly close, where BTC was pushed back up to higher levels, ultimately closing the week with a green candle, maintaining the bullish structure’s advantage.
However, the biggest hidden risk at these high levels has also started to emerge—leverage is rapidly being rebuilt.
BTC funding rates have rebounded significantly, indicating that contract bulls are becoming active again. If subsequent spot buying can strengthen at the same pace, this leverage could fuel a breakout; but if the price increases are mainly driven by contract funding and spot demand can’t keep up, there’s a risk of a quick deleveraging pullback.
Risk for ETH is even more pronounced. The retail long-short ratio is highly biased toward longs, while top traders are clearly more restrained in their long positions. This setup means the market is generally bullish, but it also provides sufficient “fuel” for a downside liquidation sweep.
Therefore, while the overall outlook remains bullish at the start of this week, one guiding principle remains:
A bullish trend does not mean chasing rising prices. Buying on pullbacks is better than chasing at high levels; only follow a real breakout if it’s accompanied by strong volume.
₿ BTC
View: Focus primarily on buying the dips, with short positions as a secondary strategy. Pay close attention to whether 87,500–87,800 can truly be broken.
The BTC weekly chart continues to close bullish, further strengthening the medium-term bullish structure.
The 4-hour EMA alignment remains bullish. MACD’s DIF and DEA are above the zero axis. Although upward momentum has weakened, there’s no clear bearish crossover yet, so the structure still favors the bulls.
Meanwhile, the Bollinger Bands keep narrowing, and the price is running close to the upper band—a typical high-level compression and accumulation pattern.
What really warrants vigilance is the zone near 87,500.
Previously, when BTC broke above 87,000, it encountered obvious selling pressure, quickly retraced, and triggered major liquidations. Now that the price has returned to the same region, it means the bulls are making a second attempt.
If this time, trading volume surges and BTC can hold above 87,500–87,800, there is potential for further upside. If it surges on low volume again, beware of history repeating itself.
Therefore:
On pullbacks to 86,000–86,500, prioritize watching for long entries;
At 87,500–87,800, assess the quality of the breakout;
If it breaks out on high volume, then watch for 88,500–89,000.
Support: 86,000–86,500; 84,800–85,300
Resistance: 87,500–87,800; 88,500–89,000
⟠ ETH
View: Focus mainly on buying the dips, watch for catch-up gains, but first guard against retail longs being flushed out.
ETH has noticeably lagged behind BTC recently, with one key reason being the continuous weakening of the ETH/BTC rate.
This puts ETH in an interesting position relative to BTC:
As long as BTC remains stable and the ETH/BTC rate rebounds, ETH could quickly catch up with rapid gains.
Technically, ETH has reached the very end of a narrow converging triangle. Multiple 2-hour moving averages are tightly converged, and the MACD’s fast and slow lines are nearly on the zero axis, indicating the market’s volatility has compressed to extremely low levels.
This kind of standoff won’t last forever.
Once a breakout occurs, the move is often even faster than during the consolidation phase.
On a larger cycle, ETH is still consolidating and building up within a bull market structure, with no clear reversal. However, there is still notable selling pressure in the 2,750–2,800 area. A convincing catch-up move requires the price to break through and hold above this band.
There’s also a need to watch out for crowded retail longs. If the market first chooses to flush out leverage to the downside, the 2,670 or even 2,655 area may be spots to look for fresh long opportunities.
So today, ETH is best approached by:
Buying on dips and avoiding chasing rallies; watch for catch-up gains if the ETH/BTC rate strengthens; look for new upside above 2,800 if it breaks out.
Support: 2,703; 2,670–2,680; 2,655
Resistance: 2,750–2,765; 2,800–2,830
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