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Under the dual test of energy and political risks, the euro came under pressure and fell by more than 1% this week, once hitting a 16-month low.

Under the dual test of energy and political risks, the euro came under pressure and fell by more than 1% this week, once hitting a 16-month low.

智通财经智通财经2026/10/02 07:06
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1. The euro is facing a dual test from energy prices and political risks. Rising oil prices and inflation are impacting the European economy, prompting investors to sell off European assets. Brent Donnelly, President of FX at Spectra Markets, stated that the US economy is booming, Europe is lagging in the global AI race, and energy supply as well as the political situation in France remain the main concerns for the euro.2. Concerns over France’s fiscal issues drove the yield spread between French and German government bonds to over 140 basis points at one point, the widest level since 2012, impacting European stock markets and heavily denting the euro. On Thursday, the euro at one point fell to 1.1215 against the US dollar, its lowest since May 2025, and also weakened significantly against the yen and the Swiss franc.3. On Thursday, the French government unveiled its 2027 draft budget, attempting to push through unpopular fiscal tightening measures to reduce the budget deficit and reassure jittery public debt investors ahead of the presidential election next year. Given deep divisions in parliament and various factions preparing for what is viewed as the most crucial election in modern French history, the bill is expected to face a tough review.4. Data released this week showed that the inflation rate in major Eurozone economies surged in September, intensifying pressure on the European Central Bank to raise interest rates. ECB President Lagarde stated that inflation has not yet triggered dangerous second-round effects in the eurozone this year, so it is still appropriate for the central bank to adopt a moderate policy response. The euro fell nearly 2.5% in September, marking its largest single-month decline since July 2025.
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