Update: US Equity Indexes Rise as Treasury Yields Slump Amid Sliding Probability of Fed Rate Increase in October

03:43 PM EDT, 10/01/2026 (MT Newswires) -- (Updates with index/price moves, macroeconomic data and company news from the first paragraph.) US equity indexes rose ahead of Thursday's close after government bond yields dropped across the curve amid a slump in odds favoring an October monetary policy tightening following Thursday's macroeconomic data. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.2% to 26,924.4, the S&P 500 climbed 0.3% to 7,672.9, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed less than 0.1% to 50,935.7. The Institute for Supply Management's US manufacturing index fell to 54.5 in September from 54.6 in August, compared with the 55.0 forecast in a Bloomberg-compiled survey. The S&P Global US manufacturing index for September was revised to 55.9 from the flash reading of 57.0, versus expectations for no revision in a Bloomberg-compiled poll. The two-year yield slumped 9.8 basis points to 4.79%, and the 10-year rate dropped 5.1 basis points to 5.24%. Traders slashed the near-term probability of the Federal Reserve raising its target rate by 25 basis points in October to 34% from 69% a week ago, according to the CME Fedwatch tool.