September US Nonfarm Payrolls Expected to Rise by 88,000, Unemployment Rate Seen Remaining at 4.1%

03:23 PM EDT, 10/01/2026 (MT Newswires) -- US nonfarm payrolls are expected to rise by 88,000 in September after a 162,000-jobs gain in August, based on a survey compiled by Bloomberg, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.1%. The September employment report is due to be released at 8:30 am ET Friday. Layoffs intentions fell in September after rising in August, according to a Challenger, Gray and Christmas report, with the technology sector the largest contributor to the total and market and economic conditions the most cited reason. Hiring plans experienced their usual September jump, though the level for the month was the lowest since 2011. The BLS's private payrolls count, which excludes government payrolls, is expected to increase by 80,000 in September after a jobs gain of 127,000 in August. ADP reported that its measure of private payrolls rose by 90,000 jobs in September after a gain of 36,000 in the previous month, led again by the education and health services and leisure and hospitality sectors. Initial claims and insured claims were both lower in the mid-September employment survey week than in the mid-August survey week. The National Federation of Independent Businesses reported that 32% of small business owners continued to have problems filling current positions in September, down from 35% in August. Job openings fell in August while hiring rose slightly, according to the BLS's JOLTS report, suggesting less demand going into September. On the consumer side, the percentage of respondents saying that jobs were "plentiful" in the Conference Board's September consumer confidence survey fell by 0.9 percentage point to 23.6% while those saying jobs were "hard to get" increased by 1.6 percentage point to 21.9%, narrowing the gap between the two measures. Average hourly earnings are expected to increase by 0.3% in September after a matching 0.3% gain in August, while the year-over-year growth rate is expected to hold steady at 3.1%. The average workweek is expected to fall to 34.3 hours from 34.4 hours.