Data Brief – HSBC lowers the average gold price forecast for 2026 to $4,490 per ounce

Latest updates on HSBC and Bank of America

Reuters, October 1 - HSBC on Thursday lowered its gold price forecasts (link), citing expectations of further U.S. interest rate hikes and rising oil prices, which may put short-term pressure on gold prices. However, the bank expects long-term support to remain unchanged.

The bank now expects an average gold price of $4,490 per ounce in 2026, down from its previous forecast of $4,560. In addition, the bank cut its 2027 forecast from $4,925 to $4,825.

However, the bank anticipates several long-term positive factors to re-emerge, including widening fiscal deficits, persistently high government debt levels, and broader economic policy uncertainty. These factors are expected to rekindle investor demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.

Meanwhile, Bank of America expects gold prices to fall to $3,750 per ounce in the fourth quarter, as the recent surge in oil prices, stubbornly high inflation, and the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance bring short-term headwinds to the precious metals market.

On Thursday, spot gold XAU= rose 0.2%, trading near $4,163 per ounce.GOL/

Below is the latest list of analysts' gold price forecasts (unit: USD/ounce):

*Year-end forecast

(For the convenience of non-native English speakers, Reuters has automated its report translations into several other languages. As automated translation may be inaccurate or lack required context, Reuters does not guarantee the accuracy of translated text and provides it solely for reader convenience. Reuters assumes no liability for any damage or loss arising from the use of the automated translation feature.)