No layoffs, no new hires! U.S. initial jobless claims fall to lowest since July, September layoffs decrease by 18%

According to Zhihu Finance APP, the number of initial jobless claims in the US last week fell to the lowest level since July, and layoffs in September also decreased. This suggests that despite employers remaining cautious about increasing hiring, the labor market is still stable. The US Department of Labor said on Thursday that for the week ending September 26, the seasonally adjusted number of initial jobless claims decreased by 1,000 to 197,000, while economists had expected 200,000.

For the week ending September 19, the number of continuing jobless claims—a proxy for hiring activity—decreased by 11,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1.701 million, the lowest level since March 2023. Although this so-called continuing claims figure is at the lower end of this year's range, some unemployed individuals are still experiencing long-term unemployment.

The four-week moving average of initial jobless claims, which smooths out fluctuations, dropped to 200,000, reaching a seven-week low.

Despite mounting negative factors from the Iran war and rising energy prices, with diesel prices at historic highs, US initial jobless claims remain close to a 57-year low. Economists say strong corporate profit growth and resilient domestic demand have shielded workers from layoffs.

Another report from global reemployment services firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas showed that in September, planned job cuts by US employers dropped by 18% to 43,281. Announced layoffs were down 20% year-on-year. So far this year, employers have announced 573,195 layoffs, down 39% compared to the first nine months of 2025. Planned layoffs in the third quarter fell by 43%.

However, employers are not rushing to add staff. Last month, plans to hire increased by 90,787 jobs. Although this is a sharp rise from August’s 12,325, hiring intentions are down 23% year-on-year and are at their lowest level for any September since 2011.

Challenger, Gray & Christmas noted that the usual seasonal surge in hiring that typically begins in September has not materialized.

"Companies are currently in wait-and-see mode," said Andy Challenger, chief revenue officer at Challenger, Gray & Christmas. "Employers are facing multiple pressures—high energy prices, uncertainty from the Iran conflict, rising labor costs due to interest rate hikes, and possibly significant increases in healthcare expenses."

The Federal Reserve raised its overnight benchmark rate by 25 basis points last month to a range of 3.75%-4.00%, the first rate hike in three years, and signaled that borrowing costs will continue to rise in the coming months.

A survey by the Conference Board released on Tuesday showed that in September, the proportion of consumers who said jobs were “plentiful” fell to the lowest since February 2021, while the share who said jobs were “hard to get” rose to the highest in more than five and a half years.

The initial jobless claims data do not fall within the statistical window for the September nonfarm payrolls report and thus will not affect nonfarm figures. A survey of economists shows that after an increase of 162,000 jobs in August, nonfarm payroll employment is expected to rise by 90,000 last month. The unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 4.1% for the third consecutive month, but risks are skewed to the upside.