Market Expectations of Fed Rate Hike in October Stay Stable Amid Bond-Market Rout -- Market Talk

0945 GMT - Market expectations of a Federal Reserve interest-rate hike in October remain contained and are priced with a 37% probability, according to LSEG. This is despite an ongoing bond-market selloff that has pushed 10- and 30-year U.S. Treasury yields to fresh 24-year highs on Thursday. The currently-priced probability is little changed from the level recorded after Wednesday's milder-than-expected U.S. PCE data, the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation. The probability of an October hike dropped after the PCE data to around 70% on Monday. Still, the data came alongside an upwardly revised GDP data which kept alive expectations for rate hikes in coming months. Markets still price in nearly four hikes over the next 12 months. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

October 01, 2026 05:45 ET (09:45 GMT)