Daily Roundup of Key US Economic Data for Sept. 30

02:31 PM EDT, 09/30/2026 (MT Newswires) -- ADP reported that its measure of private payrolls rose by 90,000 jobs in September after a gain of 36,000 in the previous month, led again by the education and health services and leisure and hospitality sectors. The third estimate of Q2 GDP showed a 2.2% gain, revised up sharply from the 1.5% increase reported in the second estimate and following a 2.5% gain in the previous quarter. Personal spending was revised up to a 3.8% gain from 3.4% in the second estimate and was well above a 0.7% gain in the previous quarter. There were also upward adjustments for the other GDP components. The gross domestic product price index rose by 6.1%, revised down from a 6.4% increase in the second reading after a 3.2% increase in the previous quarter, with the overall PCE and core PCE price measures growing slower than in the previous estimate. Personal income was up 0.2% in August after a 0.3% gain in the previous quarter, while personal consumption expenditures rose by 0.9% in August after a 0.1% increase in July. After adjustment for a 0.3% increase in the PCE prices index, real consumption rose by 0.6% after a 0.1% gain. The PCE price index rose by only 0.1% in July. Core PCE prices were up 0.2% in August after a 0.1% gain in July. The year-over-year rates for overall and core PCE price remained at 3.4% and 3.0%, respectively. Advance data for August showed the international trade deficit widened to $132.64 billion from $118.94 billion in July, reflecting faster growth in imports than exports. In the same report, wholesale inventories rose by 0.7% in August after a 1.3% gain in July, while retail inventories rose by 0.3% after a 0.8% gain. Excluding motor vehicle sales, retail inventories would be up 0.1%. The Chicago PMI rose to 58.8 in September from 47.1 in August, the last regional manufacturing reading for the month. The ISM's national index is due to be released on Thursday. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported a 6% decline in mortgage applications in the week ended Sept. 25 after a 1.5% drop in the previous week. Refinancing activity and new home applications both fell due to an increase in mortgage rates to their highest level since November 2023. Total crude oil inventories rose by 100,000 barrels in the week ended Sept. 25, with commercial oil inventories up 900,000 barrels and stocks in the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve down 800,000 barrels. Gasoline inventories and distillate inventories both decreased last week. The Q3 GDP nowcast estimate from the Atlanta Fed is for a 3.7% gain, down from the previous estimate of a 5.0% gain.