Today is Sunday, and it's also a crucial point for this week’s weekly K-line close. Liquidity during the Asia trading session is relatively limited, and the market will most likely continue to fluctuate slightly around key levels. However, as the weekly close approaches in the evening, there may be a clear intensification in the battle between bulls and bears.
Currently, market sentiment remains hot, with the Fear & Greed Index in the "greed" zone, giving a slight advantage to bulls. However, there is still clear pressure in the macro environment: US Treasury yields remain high, and concerns about further tightening of monetary policy are lingering.
Interestingly, BTC continues to demonstrate considerable resilience despite these macro headwinds.
This indicates that the market is still characterized by a very typical contradiction:
Macro factors cap the upside, capital inflows limit the depth of declines; daily momentum is lacking, but timeframes under 12 hours are steadily recovering.
Therefore, today is not suitable for aggressively chasing long positions on slow upward moves, nor for shorting directly near key support. The real focus should be on how the weekly K-line ultimately closes, and whether a breakout with strong volume will occur in the evening.
₿ BTC
View: Favor shorting near highs and longing near lows; the area around 82,800 has become an important level to watch in the short term.
After quickly pulling back from around 87,400, BTC continues to consolidate around the 84,000 region.
Earlier, large-scale long liquidations have already released some of the high-excess leverage risk, and funding rates have returned to relatively neutral levels. Compared to the peak, the market is now noticeably less crowded.
From a technical perspective, the 4-hour RSI has dropped significantly from the previous overbought zone, indicating that short-term bullish momentum has cooled; however, the price is still running close to the EMA30, so the medium-term bullish structure has not been fundamentally damaged.
The real point to note is the divergence among timeframes:
Daily bullish momentum is lacking, but multiple timeframes under 12 hours are consistently being repaired.
If today’s pullback holds at around 82,800 and the 1-hour, 2-hour, and 4-hour timeframes start strengthening in sync, we need to be cautious of a possible multi-timeframe bullish resonance below 12 hours, retesting the 84,680–84,948 or even the 86,000 regions.
However, on a larger timeframe, there is still a need for adjustment on the daily chart. Even if prices rise further next week, we should remain cautious about a possible pullback after a spike, once again forming a shorting opportunity at daily resistance levels.
Continue to approach the current phase as high-level consolidation:
If support holds, look for a rebound; if resistance holds, expect a pullback; only change the sideways perspective after a strong breakout with volume.
Support: 83,600-84,000, 83,200, 82,600
Resistance: 84,680-84,948, 86,000-86,500
⟠ ETH
View: Range-bound recovery, prefer shorts near highs, do not chase shorts here.
For ETH, it's also important to distinguish two concepts: recovery is not the same as reversal.
The short-term timeframes satisfy some rebound conditions, but corrections on the 12-hour, daily, and even weekly charts are not over yet. So even if the price continues to climb slowly over the weekend, for now it’s more reasonable to treat this as just a technical recovery after a decline.
The previous breakthrough around 2,661 signals some improvement in the short-term structure. However, whether ETH can truly open up further upside still depends on a higher key region—the area around 2,800 deserves the most attention as a major resistance.
In derivatives, bullish sentiment remains relatively positive but not extremely crowded, so further recovery still has room to play out.
However, the 12-hour MACD has already formed a bearish crossover, so longer-term correction risks remain present.
Therefore, the most reasonable approach at present remains:
Watch for support around 2,650–2,660 on pullbacks; monitor resistance between 2,700–2,750 during rebounds; only consider trend continuation after a strong breakout with volume above key resistance.
Support: 2,650-2,660, 2,624
Resistance: 2,700-2,720, 2,742, 2,750
