Euro: Decline nears support zone against US Dollar – Scotiabank

Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note the Euro (EUR) remains soft as front-end spreads widen and European Union (EU) concerns persist over a possible US diesel export ban, despite official denials. While sentiment data have diverged from German GDP since 2024, improving IFO readings better align with firmer growth. Technically, they see EUR/USD in a bearish trend, with losses looking extended and support expected around 1.1325/50.

Bearish trend approaches value area

"The EUR retains a soft undertone, reflecting the sustained widening in front-end spreads on the one hand and ongoing EU concerns about the impact of a potential US export ban of diesel on the other (despite US denials yesterday that it would not pursue a 90-day ban)."

"Germany’s IFO Survey improved a little more than expected in September, with the Business Climate Index firming to 89.9 and Expectations rising to 90.4."

"The IFO sentiment data has diverged (unusually) from German GDP since 2024. The lag remains apparent but improved sentiment aligns somewhat better with firming growth trends in the economy."

"Bearish—Sustained losses in September leave the EUR poised to weaken a little further at least although the decline is starting to look extended and spot levels are nearing the lows seen through mid-year which may entice some “value” buyers. Support should be firmer in the 1.1325/50 range"