Update: US Equity Indexes Retreat as Benchmark Bond Yield Hits 19-Year High Ahead of Fed Rate Increase While Crude Oil Prices Jump

04:58 PM EDT, 09/15/2026 (MT Newswires) -- (Updates with index/price moves, comments and geopolitical news from the first paragraph.) US equity indexes fell as the 10-year Treasury yield touched a 19-year high amid near certainty that the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates, and crude oil surged as the war against Iran draws in Saudi Arabia. The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.8% to 25,981.57, the S&P 500 declined 0.5% to 7,585.73, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.6% to 52,093.11 on Tuesday. All sectors except energy and materials fell, with consumer discretionary leading decliners. "Stocks are falling basically everywhere but not by much, and on rate and inflation fears plus AI fears either having to do with concern about slowing momentum or the cheery news from AI researchers that all profits will go to zero by decade's end," Derek Holt, head of capital market economics at Scotiabank, said in a note. The Federal Reserve kicked off its two-day monetary policy meeting on Tuesday. Ahead of the Fed's announcements on Wednesday, interest rate traders are now pricing in a 95% probability that the central bank will raise its target rate by 25 basis points, up from 33% a month ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Morgan Stanley expects another interest-rate increase in December, following a move up on Wednesday, and then a pause, as the US investment bank anticipates inflation will moderate, according to a research note. "We see arguments for both a hike and a hold, but signs of second-round effects from energy prices, strong demand tied to AI-related investment, a neutral rate that is possibly temporarily higher, and concerns about credibility mean the balance of risks now argues for a somewhat more restrictive policy," the research note said. "We expect the [Summary of Economic Projections] to show a median of two hikes this year followed by one cut each in 2027 and 2028." The US Treasury's 20-year auction hit a high yield of 5.420% on Tuesday, up from 5.204% in the previous auction, further evidence that the government is paying more for its borrowings. The bid-to-cover ratio was 2.57, up from 2.53 in the previous auction. Most US Treasury yields were higher in the final leg of trading. The 10-year yield jumped 4.5 basis points to 5.01%, earlier touching 5.04%, the highest since 2007. The two-year yield advanced 3.9 basis points to 4.67%. Saudi Arabia issued security alerts over a range of territory on Tuesday, including in the holy city of Mecca and the second-largest city, Jeddah, following a week of attacks from Iran-aligned fighters that have drawn it deeper into the Middle East war, Reuters reported. The Iran-aligned Houthis in Yemen have carried out attacks on Saudi Arabia over the past week, including strikes on an air base on Monday, the news agency said. The front-month US West Texas Intermediate crude oil contract surged 4.4% to $105.88 per barrel, and the global benchmark North Sea Brent jumped 2.8% to $108.61 per barrel. Gold futures fell 0.4% to $4,334.5, and silver futures were steady at $64.13. President Donald Trump's acknowledgment that he expects the war to end after the midterms, and winter creeping closer, may be prompting financial markets to reassess this geopolitical deterioration, Walt Chancellor, an energy strategist at Macquarie, said in a note.