U.S. natural gas: declining production and high temperatures push up prices

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智通财经2026/09/15 13:41

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U.S. natural gas futures rose slightly on Tuesday to a one-week high. The front-month October contract climbed about 4 cents, up 1.3%, to around $2.94 per million British thermal units, on track to mark the highest close since September 4.
Supportive factors include a decrease in daily production as well as forecasts showing persistently warm weather through the end of September, keeping power sector demand for air conditioning above normal for at least two weeks.
According to some financial data agencies, average U.S. natural gas output in the Lower 48 states in September has risen to around 113.2 billion cubic feet per day, surpassing August’s record-high monthly average.
However, on a daily basis, Tuesday’s production is expected to fall to about 108.4 billion cubic feet, marking a two-month low.
Record-high production and mild spring weather have kept energy companies’ inventories above the five-year average since March, but last week’s high temperatures likely narrowed the surplus from 4.8% to 3.6%.
Weather forecasts indicate generally warm conditions through September 30, with about 40% of U.S. electricity generated by gas-fired plants, sustaining high demand for cooling purposes.
Institutions project that average U.S. natural gas demand (including exports) in the Lower 48 states will fall from around 108.4 billion cubic feet per day this week to about 106.1 billion cubic feet per day next week.
In terms of liquefied natural gas exports, daily feedgas volumes to the nation’s nine major export facilities in September have risen to about 18.3 billion cubic feet, up from 17.2 billion cubic feet in August but below the record 18.8 billion cubic feet set in April.
On a daily basis, Tuesday’s LNG feedgas is expected to drop to a three-week low of about 17.7 billion cubic feet. Some energy companies plan roughly two weeks of annual maintenance on an export plant with a daily capacity of about 800 million cubic feet beginning around September 19.
Globally, European benchmark gas prices are near a 44-month high at almost $27 per million British thermal units, while Asian benchmark prices are around $25.
U.S. gas prices are reacting only modestly to Middle East tensions, as the U.S. is self-sufficient in natural gas and liquefied export facilities are already running at full capacity, leaving little room for export increases before new facilities come online.
Overall, short-term prices are supported by lower production and high temperatures, but inventories remain above normal levels, and export facility maintenance and expected seasonal demand declines may limit further gains.

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U.S. natural gas: declining production and high temperatures push up prices

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