The "copper rush" cools off? LME sees the largest delivery in nearly four weeks, copper price retreats to $14,000

According to the Zhihu Finance APP, copper prices stabilized near $14,000 per ton after a new round of inventory deliveries at exchange-monitored warehouses indicated a slight easing in supply tightness.

London Metal Exchange (LME) copper futures fluctuated slightly on Tuesday, after having just recorded their lowest closing price in four weeks. As of press time, LME copper prices edged up by 0.4% to $14,078 per ton. Other metals also saw little change: aluminum rose 0.2%, zinc fell 0.3%. Singapore iron ore futures remained stable at $95.55 per ton.

Since surging to a historic high last week, copper prices have fallen sharply. At that time, traders shifted supply to the United States ahead of expected tariffs on refined copper, resulting in tight supply elsewhere in the world.

It is understood that the Trump administration had previously instructed the Secretary of Commerce to assess the US copper market and recommended imposing a 15% tariff on refined copper imports starting January 2027, with a further increase to 30% in 2028. Driven by these expectations, traders frantically exploited the price gap between COMEX and LME, continuously transporting copper from all over the world to the United States. In July alone, over 200 thousand tons of copper arrived in the US, setting a new record.

However, so far, the tariff measures have not been implemented. Last week, reports emerged that the Trump administration had not made a final decision on refined copper import tariffs, with officials caught between rising costs and encouraging domestic mining. This news triggered a sell-off on the day.

On Monday, LME warehouses saw the largest copper delivery in nearly four weeks. The premium of three-month copper over spot copper rose to $85.75 per ton, a market structure known as "contango", which usually signals abundant supply.

For the next copper price trend, the market is watching two key variables. Later on Tuesday, traders will monitor a series of economic data releases from China to gauge demand in the world’s largest metals consumer. In addition, the market is also keeping an eye on the upcoming US Federal Reserve meeting, where the likelihood of a rate hike has surged to 89%. This typically puts pressure on commodities and other non-yielding assets.