Bitcoin’s correlation with gold hits six-year high, outpaces Nasdaq-100 link

Bitcoin and Gold as Parallel Hedges

During the current market cycle, many investors have held both bitcoin and gold in portfolios as separate forms of insurance against concerns about excessive government borrowing and the devaluation of fiat currencies. The approach aims to cover the risk that only one asset retains value under financial stress.

Central to this strategy is the hope that gold and bitcoin will move in different directions, making one an effective hedge if the other falters. However, data from recent months indicate this separation is fading. Instead, bitcoin and gold have increasingly moved together, while bitcoin’s price has become less aligned with traditional technology stocks such as those found in the Nasdaq-100.

Correlation Trends Intensify

Over the past six months, bitcoin’s price pattern has shifted away from the characteristics of a tech-driven investment and come to resemble that of gold. To analyze these changes, researchers tracked daily closing prices for bitcoin, gold, and the Nasdaq-100 index from 2019 onwards, comparing how each moved when their markets were open.

The correlation between bitcoin and gold for the most recent four-month period reached 0.56, more than doubling from 0.22 in March. Over the same period, bitcoin’s link with the Nasdaq-100 index fell from 0.54 to 0.36.

The latest reading marks the strongest connection between bitcoin and gold since 2019. This correlation now surpasses the previous record set in November 2020. Earlier this year, the assets notably moved in opposite directions: gold rose while bitcoin fell in response to market turbulence involving Japan’s bond market.

Bitwise Asset Management, a digital asset investment manager, has stated that the current bitcoin-gold correlation is the highest in nearly six years, citing recent figures that start at 0.50. Correlation statistics, however, can vary depending on factors such as the type of gold contract and specific data windows used in the calculation.

Mini dictionary: Bitwise Asset Management is a company specializing in cryptocurrency index funds and digital asset investment research, often referenced for its quantitative market analysis.

Clear thinking during major shifts in economic policy remains crucial, as fewer trades and carefully considered allocations can improve investment outcomes. In some cases, avoiding poorly timed asset allocations outweighs the benefits of identifying top-performing trades.

As portfolios reflect these shifting correlations, the effectiveness of combining bitcoin and gold as uncorrelated hedges is coming under renewed scrutiny.