ECB official Kochel warns: If oil prices remain around $100, the ECB may be forced to raise interest rates further

(1) A senior policymaker at the European Central Bank has warned that if oil prices remain around $100 per barrel until the end of the year, the ECB will have to further raise interest rates. (2) Following the ECB's second rate hike of the year on Thursday, Austria's central bank governor Martin Kocher warned in an interview that continued tensions in the Middle East and high energy prices have increased inflation risks compared to a few months ago. (3) Since the breakdown of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement in early July, oil prices have surged by more than 45%, surpassing $100 per barrel. (4) European natural gas prices have nearly doubled since June, approaching €80 per megawatt-hour. (5) The dual pressure of energy costs is making the path for inflation to fall in the eurozone even more rugged. Kocher's statement suggests that there is still a possibility of further tightening at the October meeting. Going forward, close attention will be paid to the actual trends of oil and gas prices and the guidance that eurozone core inflation data provides for the policy path.