El Niño intensifies, probability of historic events rises, weather risks reassessed

⑴ The U.S. meteorological forecasting agency stated that El Niño is intensifying, and there is over a 90% probability of a very strong event occurring during the autumn and winter of the Northern Hemisphere in 2026 to 2027. ⑵ The agency said that during October to December 2026, there is about a 75% probability of a historic event exceeding the intensity of all El Niño events since 1950. ⑶ This means global weather patterns may face significant disruptions, and precipitation and temperature distribution in major agricultural producing areas could become abnormal, thereby affecting crop yields and supply expectations. ⑷ Energy markets may also be impacted; heating demand, hydropower output, as well as natural gas and electricity loads could all be repriced due to abnormal temperatures. ⑸ It is important to continue monitoring the evolution of El Niño’s actual strength, weather changes in major agricultural producing regions, and whether the pricing of weather risks in energy and agricultural product markets intensifies.