U.S. and Iran exchange strikes on shipping targets, Brent crude remains above $100

1. International oil prices stabilized on Thursday, with Brent crude previously surpassing the $100 per barrel mark. The market is preparing for a more severe supply disruption, as both the US and Iran have launched the largest attacks on shipping targets in six months of conflict. Brent crude futures briefly reached $101.94 per barrel, hitting a six-week high, and are now slightly retreating to around the $101 level; US crude briefly touched $97.79 per barrel, the highest since May 22, and is now slightly retreating to around $96.17 per barrel.2. Iran stated on Wednesday that after the US sank five Iranian oil tankers, the country attacked ten vessels near the Strait of Hormuz. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned that if there are more attacks, it will significantly escalate retaliation. Before the war, the Strait of Hormuz accounted for about one-fifth of global oil and gas transportation; currently, the volume of oil transported through the strait remains far below pre-war levels.3. ANZ analyst Daniel Hynes pointed out in a report: “The retaliatory attacks by both sides indicate that in the foreseeable future, oil transportation in the Persian Gulf is likely to continue being disrupted.” He added that the expansion of the conflict could result in even more severe disruptions to oil supply, which has already left the market struggling to adjust.4. The US Energy Information Administration on Wednesday raised its oil price forecast for both this year and next, due to ongoing warfare in Iran leading to reduced Middle East oil supply and rapidly declining global oil inventories.