Fuel prices conceal inflationary risks, central banks closely monitor refining margin signals

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智通财经2026/09/09 12:36

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Major central banks around the world are turning their attention to refining profit indicators, as these have a more direct impact on end-user gasoline and diesel prices and may serve as a more meaningful indicator of inflation than crude oil itself.
The Bank of England governor has clearly stated that fluctuations in refined oil prices better reflect actual inflationary pressures, and this view is increasingly being recognized by other policymakers.
Ongoing geopolitical conflicts continue to disrupt refining capacity and export chains, resulting in a significant widening of diesel crack spreads and accumulating risk of energy costs being passed down to downstream sectors.
The Bank of England estimates that if energy costs remain at current levels, overall inflation may receive an additional boost of about 0.4 percentage points in the second half of this year.
Going forward, attention should be paid to the pace of refinery utilization recovery and changes in distillate inventories, as these factors will determine whether fuel-end inflation is a short-term spike or a sustained trend, thus influencing the rate-cutting pace of major central banks.

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Fuel prices conceal inflationary risks, central banks closely monitor refining margin signals

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