From AI to gold and U.S. Treasury bonds: almost everything is surging to new highs, the market welcomes “Everything High”
AI capital expenditure and corporate earnings expectations continue to rise, while energy, gold, US Treasury yields, and market positions are also climbing. On the surface, this suggests a comprehensive increase in growth and risk appetite; however, when inflation, interest rates, and crowded trades are all at high levels, the market's tolerance for the sustainability of the AI boom is also narrowing.
The global market is entering a rare "Everything High" phase: corporate earnings, capital expenditures, commodities, interest rates, and market positions—more and more indicators are simultaneously approaching historical extremes.
The most prominent change comes from AI. The capital expenditure expectations for U.S. hyperscale cloud providers over the next 12 months have risen to $940 billion, more than tripling since early 2025; meanwhile, the S&P 500's 2026 earnings growth expectation has surged to 34%, much higher than the 15% at the beginning of the year.
But this round of prosperity is not limited to the technology sector. Energy prices are rising rapidly, gold reserves continue to increase, U.S. Treasury yields are hitting multi-year highs, and both corporate earnings and economic data in emerging markets and Europe are improving at the same time, showing a broadening of global growth.
The problem is when growth, inflation, interest rates, and positions all trend high at the same time, market optimism is becoming more fragile. Whether AI capital expenditures can be sustained, if rising energy prices will reignite inflation, and whether crowded trades will magnify volatility if reversed have all become variables the market must be wary of.
AI Capital Expenditure Boom, Earnings Expectations Rising in Tandem
The core driver of this market rally remains the supercycle of AI capital expenditures. According to Bank of America, consensus expectations for capital expenditures by U.S. hyperscale cloud providers over the next 12 months have soared from less than $300 billion at the beginning of 2025 to $940 billion—a scale more than tripling, with expansion far outpacing previous tech investment cycles.
The surge in capital expenditures is also reshaping the profit distribution in the tech industry. AI demand is driving funds from hyperscale cloud providers to semiconductor companies, with the performance of the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index highly correlated with quarterly operating income forecast revisions. Meanwhile, AI commercialization is accelerating—by the end of August, the annualized revenue scale of the AI economy has reached $229 billion, a 3.5-fold year-on-year increase.
Earnings also remain exceptionally robust. According to Compound data, the S&P 500's 2026 earnings growth forecast has risen to 34%, a substantial upward revision from 15% at the start of the year. This level of growth typically only occurs during a post-recession earnings rebound, yet the U.S. economy has not entered recession.
Goldman Sachs also points out, the profit margins of the tech sector are at historically high levels, driven by both cyclical and structural factors; over the next 12 months, the tech sector is expected to contribute about a quarter of global corporate profits.
Source: Bank of America
Behind the “Everything High,” Inflationary Pressure Is Rebuilding
The issue is that overheated growth is leaving marks on commodity prices and energy costs.
Refined oil crack spreads have reached historic highs, gasoline futures are up about 30% in a month, and diesel prices are approaching $6 per gallon; U.S. electricity prices are also continually hitting new highs. If the rapid increase in energy prices is passed through to consumers, it will once again test market expectations of declining inflation.
Gold is also in a strong cycle; central banks around the world continue to increase their holdings, showing that even as risk assets strengthen, demand for traditional macro hedging assets remains robust.
More notably, inflationary pressure and growth diffusion are occurring simultaneously. This year, earnings growth expectations for emerging markets have reached 72%, and the Eurozone economic surprise index has risen to multi-year highs. From energy to gold and global corporate earnings, asset prices and fundamentals are increasing together towards new highs.
Source: Bank of America
Under Resonating Highs, the Most Dangerous Factor Is Crowded Trades
More concerning than the elevated valuations of individual assets is that positions across different markets are becoming increasingly crowded.
The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note has hit its highest closing level since 2023, net long positions on the U.S. dollar remain at historically high levels; according to Deutsche Bank, volatility-controlled strategy allocations to stocks have reached the 100th historical percentile. The ongoing low-volatility environment has driven these strategies to increase equity exposure, but should volatility rise, mechanical deleveraging may further amplify market swings.
The supply of stocks is also growing simultaneously. Goldman Sachs estimates that the amount of USD-denominated equity issuance will reach about $700 billion in 2026, a record high—including over $225 billion in IPOs and roughly $450 billion in other equity financing. In periods of elevated valuations, companies are accelerating fundraising, meaning that while the market enjoys greater risk appetite, it is also absorbing an increasing supply of new stocks.
Therefore, what truly needs attention now is not whether any single indicator is peaking, but whether earnings, capital expenditures, commodity prices, interest rates, and positions will reverse from their concurrent highs. As long as growth and AI investment remain robust, this logic can continue; but if inflation or interest rates constrain the market again, extremely crowded positions may cause market corrections to outpace the deterioration of underlying fundamentals.

Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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