Platinum shifts from deficit to surplus as investment ebbs and consumer demand slows, reshaping the supply-demand landscape

智通财经2026/09/09 10:51

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According to the latest forecast from the World Platinum Investment Council, the platinum market will experience a supply surplus of approximately 265,000 ounces in 2026, marking the first shift from shortage to surplus since 2022. Previously, the institution had forecast a shortage of about 300,000 ounces. This reversal is primarily driven by large-scale investor sell-offs and weakening performance on the jewelry consumption side.
In the first half of the year, investor interest in platinum cooled significantly. In the second quarter alone, platinum-tracking exchange-traded funds saw outflows of roughly 234,000 ounces. Geopolitical conflicts and economic uncertainty triggered capital withdrawal, compounded by weakening jewelry demand in some regions. Global platinum jewelry demand is expected to decline by around 15% year-on-year for the whole year.
Platinum futures prices surged above $2,900 per ounce in January before sharply retreating. The US-Iran war in February accelerated the decline. Rising inflation and higher interest rates have continued to erode the allocation value of non-yielding assets. Currently, platinum trades at around $1,860, about one-third below its peak for the year.
The Council expects net outflows of investment funds to continue for the remainder of the year, with total ETF outflows possibly reaching about 390,000 ounces. However, the Council’s CEO noted that the rapid development of artificial intelligence could support industrial demand over the medium to long term, while improvements in recycling are driving total supply growth of about 2%. Overall demand is expected to drop by around 18% year-on-year to approximately 7.1 million ounces. Going forward, attention will focus on when investment sentiment stabilizes and whether the pace of industrial demand replacing automotive demand accelerates.

Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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Platinum shifts from deficit to surplus as investment ebbs and consumer demand slows, reshaping the supply-demand landscape

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