Middle East benchmark crude oil spot premiums soar to $30 per barrel, conflict premium fully repriced

⑴ On Wednesday, spot premiums for Middle Eastern crude oil benchmarks Oman and Dubai surged sharply to $30 per barrel, reaching their highest levels since the end of March. Escalating regional conflict has significantly heightened market concerns over oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude oil futures simultaneously climbed above $100 per barrel, breaking this threshold for the first time since July 24.⑵ The Iranian Revolutionary Guard announced the launch of ballistic missiles at a US military base in Jordan and attacks on 10 vessels, following earlier US claims of destroying five Iranian oil tankers. The significant escalation in military confrontation has directly increased the risk premium for all maritime transport routes through the Gulf. An executive at the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company pointed out that extra war risk surcharges and freight insurance costs have risen steeply, causing a drastic spike in transit costs.⑶ In spot trading, the cash Dubai premium over swaps widened by more than $8 in a single day to $30.62 per barrel, while the Oman-Dubai spread also expanded to $30.80. The UK Maritime Trade Operations agency confirmed that several commercial vessels in the northern Gulf and Gulf of Oman suffered damage and impaired navigation capabilities in military actions last night.⑷ Moving forward, attention will focus on whether actual transit volume through the Strait further contracts due to soaring insurance costs and whether major consumer countries activate emergency reserve release mechanisms to curb extreme premiums. In the short term, price discovery dominated by geopolitical risks will continue to exhibit high volatility.