Brothers, here’s the latest Bitcoin market update you’ve been waiting for! Today, combining CPI data, the FOMC meeting, and the macro environment from the Bank of Japan, I’ll explain the trajectory for the next two to three days and the full upcoming two weeks, including three precise paths and the risks for each. Read carefully—this time, you definitely won’t miss out or get caught at the top.
Let’s start with the core logic of the market. All the current data will only determine the depth of Bitcoin’s pullback; it will not change the overall pullback trend. Rest assured, the support at the bottom is very strong right now, so don’t blindly panic-buy or rush to sell at a loss.
First, let’s talk about the blue steady path—the scenario with the highest probability, and also the main market trend for the next two weeks.
If core CPI grows 0.2% month-on-month, fully meeting market expectations, then the probability of a rate hike will stabilize at about 60%. After this data is released, Bitcoin will see a healthy pullback, settling in the $77,000 to $78,000 range.
This price point is not a random guess; it’s a zone of strong, dual-layered support. On one hand, it’s at the crucial Fibonacci 0.786 retracement at $77,600. On the other, it aligns with the neckline support formed by the previous triple bottom in the $77,000 to $78,000 range. With these two supports stacked together, the bottom is exceptionally solid.
After stabilizing, the market won’t immediately surge; it will first consolidate sideways as bulls gradually gather momentum. Once the energy is built up, it will break upwards again, testing the $82,000 to $83,000 high range. This is the most likely main trading scenario.
Next is the yellow neutral path, which represents a moderate, slightly deeper pullback with controllable risk.
If core CPI month-on-month comes in higher, at 0.2%–0.3%, the rate hike probability will shoot past 70%. Affected by this negative news, Bitcoin will face a deeper correction, falling to $75,000–$76,000, and in extreme cases, touching near $73,000.
Don’t panic at this level. The $75,000 to $76,000 zone is where the market whales have concentrated major buy walls, so there’s strong support for holding prices. $73,000 is also the key Fibonacci 0.618 retracement. Even if the price dips here, it’s just a structural deep correction—the overall bullish trend structure is not damaged at all. It’s a healthy pullback, and the outlook remains bullish.
Finally, there’s the least likely red risk path—just be aware of this scenario, no need to be overly anxious about it.
Only if the core CPI month-on-month rises above 0.3%, pushing the rate hike probability to over 80% and triggering extreme negative sentiment, will Bitcoin possibly fall deeper to test the $71,000 mark at the Fibonacci 0.5 retracement support. In theory, there’s a chance of even lower, but overall, the probability is very low and it’s highly unlikely to occur.
In summary, if we closely monitor transaction volumes and overall capital flows, we can accurately determine the trend direction. Currently, market whales continue to buy on dips and are steadily positioning themselves. Bitcoin ETF capital is also entering the market steadily, and buying support below is very strong—there’s simply no room for bears to dump prices.
Let me emphasize again: the CPI data only affects the depth of the pullback; it does not change the overall bullish structure. As long as the crucial $77,000 level is held, Bitcoin’s medium-term bullish trend will remain intact.
Sincere reminder, brothers—if the market pulls back in the coming days and hits any of the three price levels I mentioned above, they are all solid opportunities to buy in on dips. Stop blindly waiting for Bitcoin to drop below $70,000—this cycle, there is a high chance you simply won’t see prices below $70,000!
