Huatai Futures: Geopolitical tensions escalate, precious metals experience weak fluctuations

　　Source: Huatai Futures

　　Author: Shi Cheng

　　Market Analysis

　　Geopolitical front: Yemen's Houthi forces carried out a large-scale military operation against Saudi Arabia, attacking facilities of Saudi Aramco in Abha, Najran and other locations, as well as the Economic City and Saudi Aramco Jizan facilities. The Houthis announced that they will continue to launch military operations targeting deep inside Saudi territory. On interest rates, it is reported that the Bank of Japan is preparing to raise rates by 25 basis points to 1.25% at next week's monetary policy meeting, and it's also considering accelerating the pace of rate hikes to around once every quarter. Japan's Q2 final GDP growth has been revised up to 1.4%, and July wage data strengthened across the board. The interest rate market has now fully priced in a Bank of Japan rate hike.

　　Futures Market and Trading Volume:

　　On 2026-09-08, the main Shanghai Gold contract opened at 951.00 yuan/gram and closed at 953.12 yuan/gram, changing 0.25% from the previous trading day's close. Trading volume for the day was 41,087 lots, with an open interest of 129,725 lots. In yesterday's night session, the main Shanghai Gold contract opened at 953.98 yuan/gram and closed at 949.24 yuan/gram, down 0.41% from yesterday afternoon's close.

　　On 2026-09-08, the main Shanghai Silver contract opened at 16,020.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 16,125.00 yuan/kilogram, changing 0.84% from the previous trading day's close. Trading volume for the day was 358,437 lots, with open interest at 199,339 lots. In yesterday's night session, the main Shanghai Silver contract opened at 16,198 yuan/kilogram and closed at 16,157 yuan/kilogram, up 0.20% from yesterday afternoon's close.

　　US Bond Yields and Spread Monitoring:

　　On 2026-09-08, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.78%, up 0.01% from the previous trading day. The 10-year/2-year yield spread was 0.41%, changing -0.02% from the previous day.

　　SHFE Gold and Silver Position and Turnover Changes:

　　On 2026-09-08, for the Au2610 contract, long positions changed by 3 lots from the previous day, short positions changed by -3 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai Gold contracts on the previous trading day was 234,389 lots, down -43.26% from the previous trading day. For Shanghai Silver, on the Ag2610 contract, long positions changed by -44 lots, short positions changed by 2 lots. The total trading volume of Silver contracts on the previous trading day was 633,997 lots, down -29.37% from the previous day.

　　Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking:

　　For precious metal ETFs, yesterday the gold ETF position was 1,050.63 tons, down 1.426 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,339.36 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day.

　　Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking:

　　Futures-spot spread: On 2026-09-08, domestic premium: yesterday, gold had a domestic premium of -0.56 yuan/gram, silver had a domestic premium of -44.32 yuan/kilogram. Gold-silver ratio: Yesterday, the price ratio of the main SHFE gold and silver contracts was about 59.11, down -0.59% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold-silver ratio was 67.17, down -1.07% from the previous trading day.

　　Fundamentals:

　　On the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market monitoring for the previous trading day (2026-09-08): gold trading volume was 29,198 kilograms, down -34.07% from the previous day. Silver trading volume was 323,488 kilograms, down -5.79% from the previous day. Gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms; silver delivery volume was 13,500 kilograms.

　　Strategy

　　Gold: Neutral

　　Currently, market risk sentiment has increased somewhat, which may slightly weaken demand for gold investments. Therefore, it is expected that gold prices may mainly fluctuate in the near term, with the Au2610 contract likely to fluctuate in the 940 yuan/gram - 960 yuan/gram range.

　　Silver: Neutral

　　At present, silver follows a logic similar to gold, and prices are also expected to continue to fluctuate. The Ag2610 contract is likely to remain in the 15,800 yuan/kilogram - 17,000 yuan/kilogram range.

　　Arbitrage: On Hold

　　Options: On Hold

　　Risk

　　Overseas liquidity risk

　　Continued exit of speculative positions

　　Investment advisory business qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1289

Editor: Zhu Henan