South African Rand: Gold prices support ZAR against US Dollar – TD Securities

TD Securities remains constructive on South African Rand (ZAR), noting that domestic headwinds have failed to generate sustained weakness and that USD/ZAR’s downtrend remains intact. With Gold prices supported and global risk sentiment resilient, they argue ZAR offers attractive carry and see USD/ZAR rallies as opportunities to sell.

USD/ZAR rallies seen as selling opportunities

"In South Africa, domestic headwinds have repeatedly failed to generate sustained ZAR weakness."

"USD/ZAR ignored new domestic political corruption allegation headlines from Q2 '26."

"While the unexpected SARB rate hold decision briefly drove USD/ZAR above the 200d SMA in July, market was able to look past this policy misstep and push USD/ZAR back below 16.00 in August."

"Global macro variables such as gold price and equity risk sentiment continue to serve as the main drivers for ZAR."

"USD/ZAR spot downtrend remains intact. We still view USD/ZAR rallies as selling opportunities so long as gold remains supported above $4,000/oz and global equity sentiment stays resilient."