Goldman Sachs and HSBC Raise Oil Price Forecasts as Gulf Shipping Disruptions Reshape Market Pricing

⑴ Affected by the ongoing disruptions to Middle Eastern shipping, Goldman Sachs and HSBC raised their crude oil price forecasts this week. Goldman Sachs increased its December 2026 and 2027 Brent and WTI oil price forecasts by $5 per barrel each, predicting that the shipping disruptions in the Gulf may continue into next year. ⑵ Goldman Sachs presented multiple oil price scenarios: if Gulf crude oil daily output in 2027 drops by 4 million barrels compared to pre-war levels, Brent oil prices could surpass $120 per barrel; if output increases by 1 million barrels per day compared to pre-war levels, Brent oil prices may fall back to just over $60 per barrel. ⑶ HSBC raised its Brent oil price forecasts for 2026 and 2027 to $90 and $85 per barrel, respectively; the bank believes the Strait of Hormuz will remain in a new damaged normal—neither fully closed nor fully open. The oil market is not expected to return to a supply-demand balance until mid-2027, with inventories continuing to draw down over the coming quarters. ⑷ Geopolitical conflicts are pushing oil prices higher, with Brent crude at one point reaching $99.46 and WTI crude rising to $94.73, both hitting multi-week highs. Multiple institutions have issued different benchmark oil price forecasts, leading to a clear divergence in market pricing of energy geopolitical risks.